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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Michael Johnson won · S-DEC R3

Elo1502

Elo1479

Michael JohnsonvsAndre FiliUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · Saturday, August 25, 2018Lincoln, Nebraska, USA

Official fight result

Michael Johnson won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMichael Johnson: Pressure fightervsAndre Fili: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Michael Johnson wins(69.8%)

Actual result: Michael Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Johnson at +100 American odds

+$100 profit

$200 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Michael Johnson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Michael Johnson

Red Corner

Andre Fili

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-120

(55%)

1502

Elo

1479

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael Johnson

oldest →

KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23

vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25

KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26

latest

Andre FiliL2 streak

oldest →

vs Cub Swanson · Jun 24

SUBvs Melquizael Costa · Feb 25

vs Christian Rodriguez · Aug 25

vs Jose Delgado · Mar 26

KOvs Vinicius Oliveira · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael JohnsonMetricAndre Fili

4.27

Strikes / min

3.88

3.78

Strikes absorbed / min

4.34

58%

Strike defense

50%

0.57

TDs / 15 min

2.32

81%

Takedown defense

71%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.49evenly matched on net striking-0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael JohnsonAndre Fili

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Johnson(10 fights)Andre Fili(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +23.2|Blue -23.2

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +13.0|Blue -13.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael JohnsonTargetAndre Fili

By target zone

46% acc · 48%

Head

24% acc · 68%

61% acc · 34%

Body

92% acc · 30%

92% acc · 18%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

53% acc · 89%

Distance

31% acc · 97%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

50% acc · 3%

100% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Johnson rounds

even

Andre Fili rounds

Round 1Michael Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:53

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:40Control

Round 3Michael Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:37

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:40Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

65 / 116

Sig Strikes

37 / 117

56%

Sig Str %

34%

70 / 122

Total Strikes

40 / 120

0 / 3

TDs

2 / 4

TD %

66.5%

Sub Att

Rev

1:30

Ctrl Time

3:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Andre Fili	20 / 69	20 / 69	0 / 0	0
1	Michael Johnson	34 / 61	34 / 61	0 / 0	0
2	Andre Fili	7 / 16	9 / 18	1 / 1	1
2	Michael Johnson	15 / 25	20 / 31	0 / 0	0
3	Andre Fili	10 / 32	11 / 33	1 / 3	0
3	Michael Johnson	16 / 30	16 / 30	0 / 3	0

Michael Johnson

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights32

Andre Fili

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights26