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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Michael Johnson won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1502

Elo1425

Michael JohnsonvsAlan PatrickUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · Saturday, May 14, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Michael Johnson won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:22

Style matchupMichael Johnson: Pressure fightervsAlan Patrick: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Alan Patrick wins(62.4%)

Actual result: Michael Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alan Patrick at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Johnson has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Michael Johnson has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Michael Johnson

Red Corner

Alan Patrick

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1502

Elo

1425

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael Johnson

oldest →

KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23

vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25

KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26

latest

Alan PatrickL2 streak

oldest →

vs Damien Brown · Mar 16

vs Stevie Ray · Sep 16

vs Damir Hadzovic · Feb 18

KOvs Scott Holtzman · Oct 18

vs Bobby Green · Sep 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael JohnsonMetricAlan Patrick

4.27

Strikes / min

1.82

3.78

Strikes absorbed / min

2.95

58%

Strike defense

43%

0.57

TDs / 15 min

3.01

81%

Takedown defense

43%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.49Δ 1.62 — meaningful gap-1.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael JohnsonAlan Patrick

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Johnson(10 fights)Alan Patrick(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +77.7|Blue -77.7

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -147.0|Blue +147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael JohnsonTargetAlan Patrick

By target zone

51% acc · 60%

Head

23% acc · 32%

100% acc · 30%

Body

82% acc · 41%

75% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 27%

By position

58% acc · 83%

Distance

48% acc · 91%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

40% acc · 9%

100% acc · 10%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Johnson rounds

even

Alan Patrick rounds

Round 1Michael Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control1:33

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 2Michael Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:28

Knockdowns1

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 48

Sig Strikes

22 / 47

61.5%

Sig Str %

47.5%

40 / 61

Total Strikes

30 / 56

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 5

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:01

Ctrl Time

0:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alan Patrick	13 / 21	17 / 26	0 / 3
1	Michael Johnson	11 / 22	18 / 32	1 / 1
2	Alan Patrick	9 / 26	13 / 30	0 / 2
2	Michael Johnson	19 / 26	22 / 29	0 / 0

Michael Johnson

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights32

Alan Patrick

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9