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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Michael Graves won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1504

Michael GravesvsVicente LuqueUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale · Sunday, July 12, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Michael Graves won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMichael Graves: WrestlervsVicente Luque: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Vicente Luque wins(52.4%)

Actual result: Michael Graves wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vicente Luque at -185 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vicente Luque has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Michael Graves

Red Corner

Vicente Luque

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-185

(65%)

1490

Elo

1504

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael Graves

oldest →

SUBvs Randy Brown · Apr 16

latest

Vicente Luque

oldest →

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Mar 24

SUBvs Themba Gorimbo · Dec 24

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jun 25

vs Joel Alvarez · Oct 25

SUBvs Kelvin Gastelum · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael GravesMetricVicente Luque

1.25

Strikes / min

4.80

1.47

Strikes absorbed / min

5.24

58%

Strike defense

51%

4.80

TDs / 15 min

0.89

66%

Takedown defense

59%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.22evenly matched on net striking-0.44

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Graves(2 fights)Vicente Luque(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -13.9|Blue +13.9

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael GravesTargetVicente Luque

By target zone

63% acc · 81%

Head

37% acc · 46%

50% acc · 11%

Body

67% acc · 43%

50% acc · 7%

Leg

75% acc · 11%

By position

55% acc · 44%

Distance

40% acc · 57%

54% acc · 26%

Clinch

75% acc · 11%

80% acc · 30%

Ground

69% acc · 32%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Graves rounds

even

Vicente Luque rounds

Round 1Michael Graves edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns3

Control3:33

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 2Michael Graves edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns3

Control3:41

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

Round 3Vicente Luque edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control1:44

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:54Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 45

Sig Strikes

28 / 57

60%

Sig Str %

51.3%

53 / 72

Total Strikes

50 / 79

7 / 10

TDs

0 / 0

69.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:58

Ctrl Time

3:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Vicente Luque	7 / 24	12 / 29	0 / 0	0
1	Michael Graves	14 / 24	21 / 32	3 / 3	0
2	Vicente Luque	8 / 15	11 / 18	0 / 0	0
2	Michael Graves	10 / 16	26 / 32	3 / 4	0
3	Vicente Luque	13 / 18	27 / 32	0 / 0	1
3	Michael Graves	3 / 5	6 / 8	1 / 3	0

Michael Graves

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights2

Vicente Luque

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23