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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Vicente Luque won · SUB R1

Elo1529

Elo1504

Michael ChiesavsVicente LuqueUFC Prediction Result

UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Saturday, August 7, 2021Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Vicente Luque won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:25

Style matchupMichael Chiesa: WrestlervsVicente Luque: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Vicente Luque wins(52.1%)

Actual result: Vicente Luque wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vicente Luque at -105 American odds

+$95 profit

$195 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Vicente Luque threatens submissions; Michael Chiesa has lost 71% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Michael Chiesa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Michael Chiesa

Red Corner

Vicente Luque

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1529

Elo

1504

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael ChiesaW4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24

SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24

vs Court McGee · Jun 25

SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26

latest

Vicente Luque

oldest →

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Mar 24

SUBvs Themba Gorimbo · Dec 24

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jun 25

vs Joel Alvarez · Oct 25

SUBvs Kelvin Gastelum · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael ChiesaMetricVicente Luque

2.02

Strikes / min

4.80

1.73

Strikes absorbed / min

5.24

57%

Strike defense

51%

3.11

TDs / 15 min

0.89

65%

Takedown defense

59%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.29evenly matched on net striking-0.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael ChiesaVicente Luque

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Chiesa(10 fights)Vicente Luque(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +24.5|Blue -24.5

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +66.0|Blue -66.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael ChiesaTargetVicente Luque

By target zone

33% acc · 100%

Head

29% acc · 29%

Body

100% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 57%

By position

33% acc · 100%

Distance

58% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Chiesa rounds

even

Vicente Luque rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control1:01

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 12

Sig Strikes

7 / 12

33%

Sig Str %

58%

6 / 16

Total Strikes

8 / 13

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:01

Ctrl Time

0:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Vicente Luque	7 / 12	8 / 13	0 / 0	1
1	Michael Chiesa	4 / 12	6 / 16	1 / 1	2

Michael Chiesa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights22

Vicente Luque

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23