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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Sean Brady won · U-DEC R3

Elo1529

Elo1521

Michael ChiesavsSean BradyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate · Saturday, November 20, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Sean Brady won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMichael Chiesa: WrestlervsSean Brady: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Sean Brady wins(64.9%)

Actual result: Sean Brady wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sean Brady at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Sean Brady threatens submissions; Michael Chiesa has lost 71% of fights by sub.
Sean Brady has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Michael Chiesa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Michael Chiesa

Red Corner

Sean Brady

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1529

Elo

1521

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael ChiesaW4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24

SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24

vs Court McGee · Jun 25

SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26

latest

Sean Brady

oldest →

SUBvs Kelvin Gastelum · Dec 23

vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 24

SUBvs Leon Edwards · Mar 25

KOvs Michael Morales · Nov 25

DECvs Joaquin Buckley · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael ChiesaMetricSean Brady

2.02

Strikes / min

4.08

1.73

Strikes absorbed / min

2.77

57%

Strike defense

59%

3.11

TDs / 15 min

3.58

65%

Takedown defense

86%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.29Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap+1.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael ChiesaSean Brady

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Chiesa(10 fights)Sean Brady(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +7.4|Blue -7.4

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -154.0|Blue +154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael ChiesaTargetSean Brady

By target zone

43% acc · 66%

Head

26% acc · 44%

77% acc · 34%

Body

100% acc · 11%

Leg

89% acc · 44%

By position

43% acc · 62%

Distance

43% acc · 100%

83% acc · 17%

Clinch

67% acc · 21%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Chiesa rounds

even

Sean Brady rounds

Round 1Sean Brady edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:43Control

Round 2Sean Brady edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:14

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:41Control

Round 3Michael Chiesa edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control0:39

3Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:21Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 57

Sig Strikes

18 / 42

46.7%

Sig Str %

46.3%

71 / 107

Total Strikes

51 / 80

1 / 1

TDs

5 / 8

100%

TD %

66.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:53

Ctrl Time

7:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sean Brady	10 / 19	19 / 30	2 / 3
1	Michael Chiesa	4 / 14	4 / 15	0 / 0
2	Sean Brady	5 / 18	18 / 32	1 / 3
2	Michael Chiesa	8 / 18	29 / 43	0 / 0
3	Sean Brady	3 / 5	14 / 18	2 / 2
3	Michael Chiesa	17 / 25	38 / 49	1 / 1

Michael Chiesa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights22

Sean Brady

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11