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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Michael Chiesa won · SUB R1

Elo1529

Elo1445

Michael ChiesavsNiko PriceUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Saturday, March 28, 2026Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Michael Chiesa won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:03

Style matchupMichael Chiesa: WrestlervsNiko Price: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Michael Chiesa wins(74.6%)

Actual result: Michael Chiesa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Chiesa at -901 American odds

+$11 profit

$111 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Chiesa enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Niko Price enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Michael Chiesa has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Michael Chiesa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Michael Chiesa

Red Corner

Niko Price

Blue Corner

-901

(90%)

Vegas Odds

+550

(15%)

1529

Elo

1445

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael ChiesaW3 streak

oldest →

vs Sean Brady · Nov 21

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24

SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24

vs Court McGee · Jun 25

latest

Niko PriceL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 23

vs Alex Morono · Jun 24

vs Themba Gorimbo · Oct 24

SUBvs Jacobe Smith · Jun 25

KOvs Nikolay Veretennikov · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael ChiesaMetricNiko Price

2.02

Strikes / min

5.11

1.73

Strikes absorbed / min

5.57

57%

Strike defense

48%

3.11

TDs / 15 min

1.06

65%

Takedown defense

50%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.29evenly matched on net striking-0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael ChiesaNiko Price

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Chiesa(10 fights)Niko Price(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +83.9|Blue -83.9

Recent Form

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +238.0|Blue -238.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael ChiesaTargetNiko Price

By target zone

0% acc

Head

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 100%

Leg

By position

0% acc

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 100%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Chiesa rounds

even

Niko Price rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns1

Control0:23

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:08Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0 / 1

Sig Strikes

1 / 3

Sig Str %

33%

0 / 1

Total Strikes

1 / 3

1 / 2

TDs

1 / 1

50%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:23

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Niko Price	1 / 3	1 / 3	1 / 1	0
1	Michael Chiesa	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 2	1

Michael Chiesa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights22

Niko Price

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19