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Welterweight
5 Rounds
Michael Chiesa won · U-DEC
Elo1529
Michael Chiesa
Elo1505
Neil Magny editorial illustration

Michael ChiesavsNeil MagnyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · Wednesday, January 20, 2021Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Michael Chiesa won

U-DEC

Style matchupMichael Chiesa: WrestlervsNeil Magny: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Neil Magny wins(56.4%)

Actual result: Michael Chiesa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Neil Magny at -148 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
  • Michael Chiesa threatens submissions; Neil Magny has lost 46% of fights by sub.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Michael Chiesa (53.5%).
  • Neil Magny has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Michael Chiesa
Red Corner
VS
Neil Magny
Blue Corner
+120
(45%)
Vegas Odds
-148
(60%)
1529
Elo
1505
38
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'3"
190.5 cm
Reach
203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael ChiesaW4 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23
W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24
W
SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24
W
vs Court McGee · Jun 25
W
SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26
latest
Neil Magny
oldest →
L
KOvs Michael Morales · Aug 24
L
KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 24
W
KOvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Aug 25
W
SUBvs Jake Matthews · Sep 25
L
SUBvs Yaroslav Amosov · Dec 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael ChiesaMetricNeil Magny
2.02
Strikes / min
3.40
1.73
Strikes absorbed / min
2.44
57%
Strike defense
51%
3.11
TDs / 15 min
2.17
65%
Takedown defense
55%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.29evenly matched on net striking+0.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1604 vs 1660Strikes2.1 vs 4.0Takedowns3.8 vs 2.6Sub Atts1.10 vs 0.30Form0.8 vs 0.9
Michael ChiesaNeil Magny

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Michael Chiesa(10 fights)Neil Magny(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +23.5|Blue -23.5
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red -1.5|Blue +1.5
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +217.0|Blue -217.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael ChiesaTargetNeil Magny

By target zone

19
44% acc · 79%
Head
7
17% acc · 58%
3
43% acc · 13%
Body
5
71% acc · 42%
2
100% acc · 8%
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

10
34% acc · 42%
Distance
8
18% acc · 67%
1
50% acc · 4%
Clinch
4
80% acc · 33%
13
62% acc · 54%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

4
Michael Chiesa rounds
1
even
0
Neil Magny rounds
Round 1Michael Chiesa edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns1
Control2:05
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Michael Chiesa edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns1
Control4:11
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:22Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns1
Control2:04
4Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:47Control
Round 4Michael Chiesa edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns1
Control3:32
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Round 5Michael Chiesa edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control3:29
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
24 / 52
Sig Strikes
12 / 50
45.2%
Sig Str %
33.2%
93 / 125
Total Strikes
52 / 96
4 / 6
TDs
1 / 3
75%
TD %
33.3%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
15:21
Ctrl Time
2:15

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Neil Magny3 / 264 / 270 / 00
1Michael Chiesa7 / 1621 / 311 / 10
2Neil Magny1 / 310 / 120 / 10
2Michael Chiesa6 / 1120 / 261 / 20
3Neil Magny4 / 815 / 251 / 10
3Michael Chiesa3 / 714 / 181 / 20
4Neil Magny3 / 522 / 240 / 01
4Michael Chiesa5 / 1017 / 221 / 10
5Neil Magny1 / 81 / 80 / 10
5Michael Chiesa3 / 821 / 280 / 00

Michael Chiesa

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights22

Neil Magny

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights37