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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Michael Chiesa won · U-DEC R3
Elo1529
Michael Chiesa
Elo1362

Michael ChiesavsMitch ClarkeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas · Saturday, April 4, 2015Fairfax, Virginia, USA

Official fight result

Michael Chiesa won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Michael Chiesa wins(53.4%)

Actual result: Michael Chiesa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Chiesa at -420 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
  • Mitch Clarke threatens submissions; Michael Chiesa has lost 71% of fights by sub.
  • Michael Chiesa has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Michael Chiesa has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Michael Chiesa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Michael Chiesa
Red Corner
VS
Mitch Clarke
Blue Corner
-420
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+335
(23%)
1529
Elo
1362
38
Age
40
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'10"
190.5 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael ChiesaW4 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23
W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24
W
SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24
W
vs Court McGee · Jun 25
W
SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26
latest
Mitch ClarkeL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Anton Kuivanen · Jul 12
W
vs John Maguire · Jun 13
W
SUBvs Al Iaquinta · May 14
L
SUBvs Joe Duffy · Jul 16
L
KOvs Alex White · Sep 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael ChiesaMetricMitch Clarke
2.02
Strikes / min
2.35
1.73
Strikes absorbed / min
3.27
57%
Strike defense
47%
3.11
TDs / 15 min
0.64
65%
Takedown defense
50%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.29Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap-0.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1532 vs 1505Strikes15.7 vs 18.0Takedowns1.3 vs 0.8Sub Atts0.83 vs 0.50Form0.0 vs 0.7
Michael ChiesaMitch Clarke

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Michael Chiesa(10 fights)Mitch Clarke(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +167.2|Blue -167.2
Recent Form
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -104.0|Blue +104.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael ChiesaTargetMitch Clarke

By target zone

48
42% acc · 81%
Head
36
42% acc · 55%
9
69% acc · 15%
Body
14
82% acc · 22%
2
100% acc · 3%
Leg
15
83% acc · 23%

By position

41
38% acc · 69%
Distance
52
50% acc · 80%
7
78% acc · 12%
Clinch
13
87% acc · 20%
11
92% acc · 19%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Michael Chiesa rounds
0
even
1
Mitch Clarke rounds
Round 1Michael Chiesa edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns3
Control1:58
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:45Control
Round 2Michael Chiesa edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control3:25
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:50Control
Round 3Mitch Clarke edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control0:00
48Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
59 / 128
Sig Strikes
65 / 120
53.3%
Sig Str %
60.7%
98 / 173
Total Strikes
81 / 141
4 / 7
TDs
0 / 4
53.3%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
5:23
Ctrl Time
2:35

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Mitch Clarke11 / 2016 / 250 / 20
1Michael Chiesa20 / 3445 / 613 / 50
2Mitch Clarke6 / 817 / 240 / 10
2Michael Chiesa10 / 1524 / 331 / 10
3Mitch Clarke48 / 9248 / 920 / 10
3Michael Chiesa29 / 7929 / 790 / 10

Michael Chiesa

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights22

Mitch Clarke

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights7