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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Michael Chiesa won · SUB R3

Elo1529

Elo1470

Michael ChiesavsMax GriffinUFC Prediction Result

UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Saturday, December 7, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Michael Chiesa won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:56

Style matchupMichael Chiesa: WrestlervsMax Griffin: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Michael Chiesa wins(58.8%)

Actual result: Michael Chiesa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Chiesa at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Chiesa enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Michael Chiesa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Michael Chiesa

Red Corner

Max Griffin

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1529

Elo

1470

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael ChiesaW3 streak

oldest →

vs Sean Brady · Nov 21

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24

vs Court McGee · Jun 25

SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26

latest

Max GriffinL2 streak

oldest →

vs Tim Means · Oct 22

vs Michael Morales · Jul 23

vs Jeremiah Wells · Feb 24

vs Chris Curtis · Jul 25

DECvs Victor Valenzuela · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael ChiesaMetricMax Griffin

2.02

Strikes / min

3.70

1.73

Strikes absorbed / min

3.69

57%

Strike defense

58%

3.11

TDs / 15 min

1.44

65%

Takedown defense

69%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.29evenly matched on net striking+0.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael ChiesaMax Griffin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Chiesa(10 fights)Max Griffin(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +58.5|Blue -58.5

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -175.0|Blue +175.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael ChiesaTargetMax Griffin

By target zone

33% acc · 85%

Head

27% acc · 90%

33% acc · 15%

Body

100% acc · 10%

Leg

By position

31% acc · 69%

Distance

33% acc · 100%

40% acc · 31%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Chiesa rounds

even

Max Griffin rounds

Round 1Michael Chiesa edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control1:35

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control1:20

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:19Control

Round 3Michael Chiesa edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control0:53

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 39

Sig Strikes

10 / 34

33%

Sig Str %

30%

54 / 87

Total Strikes

18 / 43

2 / 8

TDs

0 / 1

41.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:48

Ctrl Time

1:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Max Griffin	3 / 15	5 / 17	0 / 1	0
1	Michael Chiesa	6 / 17	12 / 25	1 / 4	0
2	Max Griffin	5 / 11	11 / 18	0 / 0	0
2	Michael Chiesa	5 / 16	38 / 54	0 / 3	0
3	Max Griffin	2 / 8	2 / 8	0 / 0	0
3	Michael Chiesa	2 / 6	4 / 8	1 / 1	1

Michael Chiesa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights22

Max Griffin

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19