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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Kevin Lee won · SUB R1

Elo1529

Elo1466

Michael ChiesavsKevin LeeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · Sunday, June 25, 2017Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA

Official fight result

Kevin Lee won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:37

Style matchupMichael Chiesa: WrestlervsKevin Lee: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Kevin Lee wins(65.2%)

Actual result: Kevin Lee wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Lee at -145 American odds

+$69 profit

$169 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Kevin Lee enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Michael Chiesa threatens submissions; Kevin Lee has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Michael Chiesa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Michael Chiesa

Red Corner

Kevin Lee

Blue Corner

+125

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-145

(59%)

1529

Elo

1466

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'9"

190.5 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael ChiesaW4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24

SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24

vs Court McGee · Jun 25

SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26

latest

Kevin LeeL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Rafael Dos Anjos · May 19

KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Nov 19

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Mar 20

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Aug 21

SUBvs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael ChiesaMetricKevin Lee

2.02

Strikes / min

3.88

1.73

Strikes absorbed / min

3.60

57%

Strike defense

50%

3.11

TDs / 15 min

3.18

65%

Takedown defense

75%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.29evenly matched on net striking+0.28

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael ChiesaKevin Lee

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Chiesa(10 fights)Kevin Lee(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +62.9|Blue -62.9

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -1.7|Blue +1.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +329.0|Blue -329.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael ChiesaTargetKevin Lee

By target zone

38% acc · 75%

Head

70% acc · 86%

100% acc · 25%

Body

100% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

29% acc · 50%

Distance

75% acc · 14%

Clinch

100% acc · 50%

Ground

73% acc · 86%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Chiesa rounds

even

Kevin Lee rounds

Round 1Kevin Lee edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:08

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:34Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 9

Sig Strikes

22 / 30

44%

Sig Str %

73%

9 / 14

Total Strikes

37 / 45

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:08

Ctrl Time

3:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kevin Lee	22 / 30	37 / 45	1 / 1	1
1	Michael Chiesa	4 / 9	9 / 14	0 / 0	0

Michael Chiesa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights22

Kevin Lee

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19