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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Kevin Holland won · SUB R1

Elo1529

Elo1510

Michael ChiesavsKevin HollandUFC Prediction Result

UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · Saturday, July 29, 2023Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

Kevin Holland won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:39

Style matchupMichael Chiesa: WrestlervsKevin Holland: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Kevin Holland wins(65.4%)

Actual result: Kevin Holland wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kevin Holland at -135 American odds

+$74 profit

$174 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Michael Chiesa (53.5%).
Kevin Holland has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Michael Chiesa

Red Corner

Kevin Holland

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1529

Elo

1510

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael ChiesaW4 streak

oldest →

vs Sean Brady · Nov 21

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24

SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24

vs Court McGee · Jun 25

SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26

latest

Kevin Holland

oldest →

vs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Jun 25

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jul 25

vs Mike Malott · Oct 25

DECvs Randy Brown · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael ChiesaMetricKevin Holland

2.02

Strikes / min

4.24

1.73

Strikes absorbed / min

3.21

57%

Strike defense

50%

3.11

TDs / 15 min

0.79

65%

Takedown defense

57%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.29evenly matched on net striking+1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael ChiesaKevin Holland

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Chiesa(10 fights)Kevin Holland(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +19.0|Blue -19.0

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +504.0|Blue -504.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael ChiesaTargetKevin Holland

By target zone

36% acc · 100%

Head

50% acc · 78%

Body

100% acc · 22%

Leg

By position

43% acc · 75%

Distance

44% acc · 44%

25% acc · 25%

Clinch

80% acc · 44%

Ground

50% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Chiesa rounds

even

Kevin Holland rounds

Round 1Kevin Holland edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:15

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:40Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 11

Sig Strikes

9 / 16

36%

Sig Str %

56%

6 / 13

Total Strikes

12 / 19

0 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:15

Ctrl Time

0:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kevin Holland	9 / 16	12 / 19	0 / 0	1
1	Michael Chiesa	4 / 11	6 / 13	0 / 5	0

Michael Chiesa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights22

Kevin Holland

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights27