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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jorge Masvidal won · SUB R2

Elo1529

Elo1456

Michael ChiesavsJorge MasvidalUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · Saturday, July 27, 2013Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Jorge Masvidal won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:59

Style matchupMichael Chiesa: WrestlervsJorge Masvidal: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Jorge Masvidal wins(80.5%)

Actual result: Jorge Masvidal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jorge Masvidal at -280 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Jorge Masvidal enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Michael Chiesa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Michael Chiesa

Red Corner

Jorge Masvidal

Blue Corner

+255

(28%)

Vegas Odds

-280

(74%)

1529

Elo

1456

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael ChiesaW4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24

SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24

vs Court McGee · Jun 25

SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26

latest

Jorge MasvidalL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nate Diaz · Nov 19

vs Kamaru Usman · Jul 20

KOvs Kamaru Usman · Apr 21

vs Colby Covington · Mar 22

vs Gilbert Burns · Apr 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael ChiesaMetricJorge Masvidal

2.02

Strikes / min

4.05

1.73

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

57%

Strike defense

64%

3.11

TDs / 15 min

1.38

65%

Takedown defense

72%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.29evenly matched on net striking+1.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael ChiesaJorge Masvidal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Chiesa(10 fights)Jorge Masvidal(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +72.6|Blue -72.6

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael ChiesaTargetJorge Masvidal

By target zone

39% acc · 75%

Head

52% acc · 63%

83% acc · 21%

Body

100% acc · 38%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

By position

45% acc · 96%

Distance

55% acc · 71%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

100% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Chiesa rounds

even

Jorge Masvidal rounds

Round 1Michael Chiesa edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control1:31

Knockdowns1

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Jorge Masvidal edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control1:11

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:46Control

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 53

Sig Strikes

24 / 38

35.5%

Sig Str %

67.5%

35 / 66

Total Strikes

66 / 86

2 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

41.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:42

Ctrl Time

3:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jorge Masvidal	12 / 24	23 / 37	0 / 0	0
1	Michael Chiesa	22 / 43	28 / 50	1 / 3	0
2	Jorge Masvidal	12 / 14	43 / 49	0 / 0	2
2	Michael Chiesa	2 / 10	7 / 16	1 / 2	0

Michael Chiesa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights22

Jorge Masvidal

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights22