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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Michael Chiesa won · U-DEC R3

Elo1529

Elo1496

Michael ChiesavsFrancisco TrinaldoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw · Saturday, May 24, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Michael Chiesa won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMichael Chiesa: WrestlervsFrancisco Trinaldo: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Francisco Trinaldo wins(51.4%)

Actual result: Michael Chiesa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francisco Trinaldo at +140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Michael Chiesa has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Michael Chiesa

Red Corner

Francisco Trinaldo

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1529

Elo

1496

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

5'9"

190.5 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael ChiesaW4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24

SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24

vs Court McGee · Jun 25

SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26

latest

Francisco Trinaldo

oldest →

KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21

vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21

vs Danny Roberts · May 22

vs Randy Brown · Oct 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael ChiesaMetricFrancisco Trinaldo

2.02

Strikes / min

3.13

1.73

Strikes absorbed / min

2.67

57%

Strike defense

60%

3.11

TDs / 15 min

0.98

65%

Takedown defense

60%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.29evenly matched on net striking+0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael ChiesaFrancisco Trinaldo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Chiesa(10 fights)Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +32.4|Blue -32.4

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +101.0|Blue -101.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael ChiesaTargetFrancisco Trinaldo

By target zone

22% acc · 74%

Head

26% acc · 54%

67% acc · 21%

Body

80% acc · 31%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 15%

By position

21% acc · 53%

Distance

34% acc · 85%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 15%

38% acc · 42%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Chiesa rounds

even

Francisco Trinaldo rounds

Round 1Michael Chiesa edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control2:30

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Michael Chiesa edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control3:14

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Michael Chiesa edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control3:07

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 70

Sig Strikes

13 / 34

24.7%

Sig Str %

52.7%

121 / 208

Total Strikes

23 / 44

2 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

25%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:51

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Francisco Trinaldo	4 / 4	6 / 6	0 / 0	0
1	Michael Chiesa	12 / 34	56 / 111	1 / 4	0
2	Francisco Trinaldo	6 / 16	11 / 21	0 / 0	1
2	Michael Chiesa	3 / 15	36 / 48	0 / 1	0
3	Francisco Trinaldo	3 / 14	6 / 17	0 / 0	0
3	Michael Chiesa	4 / 21	29 / 49	1 / 2	0

Michael Chiesa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights22

Francisco Trinaldo

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26