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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Michael Chiesa won · U-DEC R3

Elo1529

Elo1493

Michael ChiesavsCourt McGeeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · Saturday, June 14, 2025Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Michael Chiesa won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMichael Chiesa: WrestlervsCourt McGee: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Michael Chiesa wins(71.3%)

Actual result: Michael Chiesa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Chiesa at -335 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Chiesa enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Michael Chiesa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Michael Chiesa

Red Corner

Court McGee

Blue Corner

-335

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+270

(27%)

1529

Elo

1493

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael ChiesaW3 streak

oldest →

vs Sean Brady · Nov 21

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24

SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24

SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26

latest

Court McGee

oldest →

vs Ramiz Brahimaj · Jan 22

KOvs Jeremiah Wells · Jun 22

KOvs Matt Brown · May 23

vs Alex Morono · Apr 24

SUBvs Tim Means · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael ChiesaMetricCourt McGee

2.02

Strikes / min

4.50

1.73

Strikes absorbed / min

3.65

57%

Strike defense

60%

3.11

TDs / 15 min

1.78

65%

Takedown defense

70%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.29evenly matched on net striking+0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael ChiesaCourt McGee

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Chiesa(10 fights)Court McGee(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +36.3|Blue -36.3

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -1.8|Blue +1.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael ChiesaTargetCourt McGee

By target zone

37% acc · 65%

Head

9% acc · 23%

78% acc · 35%

Body

55% acc · 41%

Leg

67% acc · 36%

By position

39% acc · 72%

Distance

26% acc · 92%

71% acc · 28%

Clinch

60% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Chiesa rounds

even

Court McGee rounds

Round 1Michael Chiesa edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Michael Chiesa edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:21

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Michael Chiesa edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control1:11

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:45Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

72 / 160

Sig Strikes

39 / 145

43.7%

Sig Str %

26.3%

81 / 169

Total Strikes

51 / 158

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 6

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:32

Ctrl Time

0:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Court McGee	10 / 41	11 / 42	0 / 1
1	Michael Chiesa	15 / 45	15 / 45	0 / 0
2	Court McGee	17 / 58	20 / 62	0 / 3
2	Michael Chiesa	24 / 57	25 / 58	0 / 0
3	Court McGee	12 / 46	20 / 54	0 / 2
3	Michael Chiesa	33 / 58	41 / 66	0 / 2

Michael Chiesa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights22

Court McGee

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights24