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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Michael Chiesa won · SUB R2

Elo1529

Elo1490

Michael ChiesavsAnton KuivanenUFC Prediction Result

UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche · Saturday, February 23, 2013Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Michael Chiesa won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:29

Model Prediction: Michael Chiesa wins(57.8%)

Actual result: Michael Chiesa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Chiesa at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Michael Chiesa threatens submissions; Anton Kuivanen has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Anton Kuivanen has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Michael Chiesa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Michael Chiesa

Red Corner

Anton Kuivanen

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1529

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'8"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael ChiesaW4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24

SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24

vs Court McGee · Jun 25

SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26

latest

Anton Kuivanen

oldest →

vs Justin Salas · Feb 12

vs Mitch Clarke · Jul 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael ChiesaMetricAnton Kuivanen

2.02

Strikes / min

2.27

1.73

Strikes absorbed / min

1.63

57%

Strike defense

67%

3.11

TDs / 15 min

1.20

65%

Takedown defense

71%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.29evenly matched on net striking+0.64

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael ChiesaAnton Kuivanen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Chiesa(10 fights)Anton Kuivanen(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +38.7|Blue -38.7

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael ChiesaTargetAnton Kuivanen

By target zone

7% acc · 60%

Head

26% acc · 61%

50% acc · 40%

Body

54% acc · 39%

Leg

By position

7% acc · 60%

Distance

26% acc · 72%

50% acc · 40%

Clinch

100% acc · 28%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Chiesa rounds

even

Anton Kuivanen rounds

Round 1Anton Kuivanen edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control0:35

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

Round 2Michael Chiesa edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control1:32

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 50

Sig Strikes

18 / 55

5.5%

Sig Str %

18%

9 / 54

Total Strikes

18 / 55

1 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

16.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:07

Ctrl Time

0:50

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Anton Kuivanen	18 / 49	18 / 49	0 / 0	0
1	Michael Chiesa	5 / 45	7 / 47	1 / 3	0
2	Anton Kuivanen	0 / 6	0 / 6	0 / 0	0
2	Michael Chiesa	0 / 5	2 / 7	0 / 2	2

Michael Chiesa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights22

Anton Kuivanen

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3