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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Anthony Pettis won · SUB R2

Elo1529

Elo1493

Michael ChiesavsAnthony PettisUFC Prediction Result

UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier · Saturday, July 7, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Anthony Pettis won

SUB · Round 2 · 0:52

Style matchupMichael Chiesa: WrestlervsAnthony Pettis: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Anthony Pettis wins(63.4%)

Actual result: Anthony Pettis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anthony Pettis at +155 American odds

+$155 profit

$255 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Michael Chiesa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Michael Chiesa

Red Corner

Anthony Pettis

Blue Corner

-175

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1529

Elo

1493

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael ChiesaW4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24

SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24

vs Court McGee · Jun 25

SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26

latest

Anthony PettisW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Stephen Thompson · Mar 19

vs Nate Diaz · Aug 19

SUBvs Diego Ferreira · Jan 20

vs Donald Cerrone · May 20

vs Alex Morono · Dec 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael ChiesaMetricAnthony Pettis

2.02

Strikes / min

3.05

1.73

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

57%

Strike defense

54%

3.11

TDs / 15 min

0.61

65%

Takedown defense

60%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.29evenly matched on net striking-0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael ChiesaAnthony Pettis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Chiesa(10 fights)Anthony Pettis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +35.8|Blue -35.8

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +139.0|Blue -139.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael ChiesaTargetAnthony Pettis

By target zone

24% acc · 33%

Head

23% acc · 33%

100% acc · 58%

Body

67% acc · 44%

50% acc · 8%

Leg

67% acc · 22%

By position

38% acc · 67%

Distance

37% acc · 78%

100% acc · 25%

Clinch

100% acc · 11%

50% acc · 8%

Ground

50% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Chiesa rounds

even

Anthony Pettis rounds

Round 1Michael Chiesa edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns2

Control2:10

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:57Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:29

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 26

Sig Strikes

9 / 22

47.5%

Sig Str %

40.5%

19 / 35

Total Strikes

13 / 26

2 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

33%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:39

Ctrl Time

1:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Anthony Pettis	7 / 17	11 / 21	0 / 0	0
1	Michael Chiesa	11 / 24	17 / 32	2 / 6	0
2	Anthony Pettis	2 / 5	2 / 5	0 / 0	2
2	Michael Chiesa	1 / 2	2 / 3	0 / 0	0

Michael Chiesa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights22

Anthony Pettis

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights20