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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Michael Chiesa won · SUB R1

Elo1529

Elo1411

Michael ChiesavsAl IaquintaUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Live Finale · Friday, June 1, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Michael Chiesa won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:47

Style matchupMichael Chiesa: WrestlervsAl Iaquinta: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Michael Chiesa wins(52.5%)

Actual result: Michael Chiesa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Chiesa at +240 American odds

+$240 profit

$340 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Al Iaquinta enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Michael Chiesa threatens submissions; Al Iaquinta has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Michael Chiesa (53.5%).
Michael Chiesa has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Michael Chiesa

Red Corner

Al Iaquinta

Blue Corner

+240

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-260

(72%)

1529

Elo

1411

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael ChiesaW4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24

SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24

vs Court McGee · Jun 25

SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26

latest

Al IaquintaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Apr 18

vs Kevin Lee · Dec 18

vs Donald Cerrone · May 19

vs Dan Hooker · Oct 19

KOvs Bobby Green · Nov 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael ChiesaMetricAl Iaquinta

2.02

Strikes / min

4.06

1.73

Strikes absorbed / min

4.53

57%

Strike defense

61%

3.11

TDs / 15 min

0.63

65%

Takedown defense

74%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.29evenly matched on net striking-0.47

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Chiesa(10 fights)Al Iaquinta(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +117.8|Blue -117.8

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael ChiesaTargetAl Iaquinta

By target zone

45% acc · 56%

Head

46% acc · 75%

100% acc · 11%

Body

50% acc · 13%

100% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

60% acc · 100%

Distance

57% acc · 100%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Chiesa rounds

even

Al Iaquinta rounds

Round 1Michael Chiesa edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control1:05

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 15

Sig Strikes

8 / 16

60%

Sig Str %

50%

9 / 15

Total Strikes

8 / 16

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

33%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:05

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Al Iaquinta	8 / 16	8 / 16	0 / 0	0
1	Michael Chiesa	9 / 15	9 / 15	1 / 3	1

Michael Chiesa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights22

Al Iaquinta

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15