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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Michael Chandler won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1454

Elo1485

Michael ChandlervsTony FergusonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · Saturday, May 7, 2022Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Michael Chandler won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:17

Style matchupMichael Chandler: Pressure fightervsTony Ferguson: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Michael Chandler wins(64.3%)

Actual result: Michael Chandler wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Chandler at -350 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Chandler enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Tony Ferguson enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Tony Ferguson has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tony Ferguson has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Michael Chandler

Red Corner

Tony Ferguson

Blue Corner

-350

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+270

(27%)

1454

Elo

1485

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael ChandlerL5 streak

oldest →

vs Justin Gaethje · Nov 21

SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Nov 22

vs Charles Oliveira · Nov 24

KOvs Paddy Pimblett · Apr 25

KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · Jun 26

latest

Tony FergusonL5 streak

oldest →

vs Beneil Dariush · May 21

SUBvs Nate Diaz · Sep 22

SUBvs King Green · Jul 23

vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 23

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Aug 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael ChandlerMetricTony Ferguson

4.04

Strikes / min

4.91

4.52

Strikes absorbed / min

4.37

43%

Strike defense

55%

1.96

TDs / 15 min

0.39

61%

Takedown defense

66%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.48Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap+0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael ChandlerTony Ferguson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Chandler(8 fights)Tony Ferguson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -31.0|Blue +31.0

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -175.0|Blue +175.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael ChandlerTargetTony Ferguson

By target zone

38% acc · 56%

Head

34% acc · 65%

75% acc · 22%

Body

29% acc · 10%

100% acc · 22%

Leg

100% acc · 25%

By position

47% acc · 67%

Distance

40% acc · 85%

Clinch

60% acc · 33%

Ground

38% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Chandler rounds

even

Tony Ferguson rounds

Round 1Michael Chandler edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns1

Control2:29

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Michael Chandler edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 53

Sig Strikes

20 / 50

75%

Sig Str %

40%

43 / 73

Total Strikes

27 / 58

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:31

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tony Ferguson	20 / 50	27 / 58	0 / 0
1	Michael Chandler	26 / 52	42 / 72	1 / 1
2	Tony Ferguson	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0
2	Michael Chandler	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0

Michael Chandler

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7

Tony Ferguson

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights24