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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Paddy Pimblett won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1454

Elo1541

Michael ChandlervsPaddy PimblettUFC Prediction Result

UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Saturday, April 12, 2025Miami, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Paddy Pimblett won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:07

Style matchupMichael Chandler: Pressure fightervsPaddy Pimblett: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Paddy Pimblett wins(85.4%)

Actual result: Paddy Pimblett wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paddy Pimblett at -168 American odds

+$60 profit

$160 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Chandler enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Michael Chandler has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Michael Chandler

Red Corner

Paddy Pimblett

Blue Corner

+142

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-168

(63%)

1454

Elo

1541

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael ChandlerL3 streak

oldest →

vs Justin Gaethje · Nov 21

KOvs Tony Ferguson · May 22

SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Nov 22

vs Charles Oliveira · Nov 24

KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · Jun 26

latest

Paddy Pimblett

oldest →

vs Jared Gordon · Dec 22

vs Tony Ferguson · Dec 23

SUBvs King Green · Jul 24

vs Justin Gaethje · Jan 26

SUBvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael ChandlerMetricPaddy Pimblett

4.04

Strikes / min

5.49

4.52

Strikes absorbed / min

3.89

43%

Strike defense

42%

1.96

TDs / 15 min

0.69

61%

Takedown defense

44%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.48Δ 2.08 — meaningful gap+1.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael ChandlerPaddy Pimblett

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Chandler(8 fights)Paddy Pimblett(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -87.4|Blue +87.4

Recent Form

Red -1.8|Blue +1.8

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael ChandlerTargetPaddy Pimblett

By target zone

33% acc · 55%

Head

51% acc · 76%

43% acc · 27%

Body

80% acc · 5%

67% acc · 18%

Leg

79% acc · 19%

By position

42% acc · 91%

Distance

45% acc · 54%

Clinch

80% acc · 5%

25% acc · 9%

Ground

79% acc · 41%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Chandler rounds

even

Paddy Pimblett rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns2

Control2:10

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Paddy Pimblett edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns2

Control0:34

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:15Control

Round 3Paddy Pimblett edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:26Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 28

Sig Strikes

80 / 143

37.7%

Sig Str %

56%

20 / 39

Total Strikes

121 / 197

4 / 7

TDs

1 / 2

58%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:44

Ctrl Time

4:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Paddy Pimblett	16 / 40	25 / 50	0 / 0
1	Michael Chandler	5 / 11	7 / 14	2 / 3
2	Paddy Pimblett	34 / 63	49 / 83	0 / 0
2	Michael Chandler	5 / 14	11 / 21	2 / 4
3	Paddy Pimblett	30 / 40	47 / 64	1 / 2
3	Michael Chandler	1 / 3	2 / 4	0 / 0

Michael Chandler

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7

Paddy Pimblett

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights9