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Middleweight
5 Rounds
Tim Kennedy won · U-DEC R5
Elo1363
Elo1359

Michael BispingvsTim KennedyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Kennedy · Wednesday, April 16, 2014Quebec City, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Tim Kennedy won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupMichael Bisping: Elusive strikervsTim Kennedy: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Tim Kennedy wins(50.8%)

Actual result: Tim Kennedy wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tim Kennedy at +185 American odds

+$185 profit

$285 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Michael Bisping
Red Corner
VS
Tim Kennedy
Blue Corner
-200
(67%)
Vegas Odds
+185
(35%)
1363
Elo
1359
47
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'11"
190.5 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael BispingL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Anderson Silva · Feb 16
W
KOvs Luke Rockhold · Jun 16
W
vs Dan Henderson · Oct 16
L
SUBvs Georges St-Pierre · Nov 17
L
KOvs Kelvin Gastelum · Nov 17
latest
Tim KennedyL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Roger Gracie · Jul 13
W
KOvs Rafael Natal · Nov 13
L
KOvs Yoel Romero · Sep 14
L
KOvs Kelvin Gastelum · Dec 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael BispingMetricTim Kennedy
4.33
Strikes / min
2.78
2.71
Strikes absorbed / min
1.84
65%
Strike defense
62%
1.05
TDs / 15 min
2.58
63%
Takedown defense
70%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.62evenly matched on net striking+0.94

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1562 vs 1539Strikes49.8 vs 33.5Takedowns1.4 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.26 vs 0.00Form0.3 vs 1.0
Michael BispingTim Kennedy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Michael Bisping(10 fights)Tim Kennedy(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +4.1|Blue -4.1
Recent Form
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +193.0|Blue -193.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael BispingTargetTim Kennedy

By target zone

35
27% acc · 88%
Head
32
41% acc · 63%
4
50% acc · 10%
Body
12
63% acc · 24%
1
100% acc · 3%
Leg
7
78% acc · 14%

By position

38
28% acc · 95%
Distance
36
44% acc · 71%
2
100% acc · 5%
Clinch
6
86% acc · 12%
0
Ground
9
53% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Michael Bisping rounds
1
even
3
Tim Kennedy rounds
Round 1Tim Kennedy edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:00
9Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
4:42Control
Round 2Michael Bisping edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:03
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:30Control
Round 3Tim Kennedy edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
5Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:18Control
Round 4Even round
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:44Control
Round 5Tim Kennedy edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:47Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
40 / 137
Sig Strikes
51 / 106
21.4%
Sig Str %
49.4%
53 / 151
Total Strikes
76 / 141
0 / 0
TDs
5 / 11
—
TD %
53.2%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:03
Ctrl Time
12:01

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Michael Bisping0 / 46 / 110 / 00
1Tim Kennedy9 / 1818 / 312 / 20
2Tim Kennedy11 / 2211 / 220 / 30
2Michael Bisping17 / 4919 / 510 / 00
3Tim Kennedy5 / 919 / 291 / 10
3Michael Bisping1 / 86 / 130 / 00
4Michael Bisping14 / 3214 / 320 / 00
4Tim Kennedy13 / 3213 / 320 / 20
5Tim Kennedy13 / 2515 / 272 / 30
5Michael Bisping8 / 448 / 440 / 00

Michael Bisping

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights18

Tim Kennedy

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights5