Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Middleweight
5 Rounds
Michael Bisping won · S-DEC R5
Elo1363
Elo1491
Thales Leites

Michael BispingvsThales LeitesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Leites · Saturday, July 18, 2015Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Michael Bisping won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupMichael Bisping: Elusive strikervsThales Leites: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Thales Leites wins(68.7%)

Actual result: Michael Bisping wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Thales Leites at +115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Michael Bisping has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Michael Bisping has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Michael Bisping
Red Corner
VS
Thales Leites
Blue Corner
-135
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+115
(47%)
1363
Elo
1491
47
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'1"
190.5 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael BispingL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Anderson Silva · Feb 16
W
KOvs Luke Rockhold · Jun 16
W
vs Dan Henderson · Oct 16
L
SUBvs Georges St-Pierre · Nov 17
L
KOvs Kelvin Gastelum · Nov 17
latest
Thales Leites
oldest →
L
vs Krzysztof Jotko · Nov 16
W
vs Sam Alvey · Apr 17
L
vs Brad Tavares · Oct 17
L
KOvs Jack Hermansson · May 18
W
vs Hector Lombard · Sep 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael BispingMetricThales Leites
4.33
Strikes / min
2.13
2.71
Strikes absorbed / min
2.99
65%
Strike defense
52%
1.05
TDs / 15 min
2.10
63%
Takedown defense
30%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.62Δ 2.48 — meaningful gap-0.86

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1557 vs 1592Strikes50.9 vs 21.3Takedowns1.1 vs 1.9Sub Atts0.22 vs 1.15Form0.3 vs 1.0
Michael BispingThales Leites

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Michael Bisping(10 fights)Thales Leites(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -128.5|Blue +128.5
Recent Form
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score
Red +1.5|Blue -1.5
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red -84.0|Blue +84.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael BispingTargetThales Leites

By target zone

73
32% acc · 63%
Head
49
31% acc · 62%
6
60% acc · 5%
Body
9
60% acc · 11%
36
95% acc · 31%
Leg
21
91% acc · 27%

By position

108
40% acc · 94%
Distance
73
41% acc · 92%
5
100% acc · 4%
Clinch
6
40% acc · 8%
2
100% acc · 2%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

4
Michael Bisping rounds
0
even
1
Thales Leites rounds
Round 1Michael Bisping edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:31
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:35Control
Round 2Michael Bisping edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:00
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Thales Leites edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:04
21Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:22Control
Round 4Michael Bisping edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control0:00
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Michael Bisping edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns0
Control0:00
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
115 / 277
Sig Strikes
79 / 194
40.8%
Sig Str %
42.2%
117 / 281
Total Strikes
80 / 197
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 4
—
TD %
16.7%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:35
Ctrl Time
0:58

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Thales Leites10 / 2011 / 230 / 10
1Michael Bisping13 / 4915 / 510 / 00
2Thales Leites15 / 3215 / 320 / 00
2Michael Bisping24 / 5024 / 500 / 00
3Thales Leites21 / 4221 / 421 / 20
3Michael Bisping21 / 5421 / 540 / 00
4Michael Bisping29 / 5929 / 590 / 00
4Thales Leites11 / 3411 / 340 / 10
5Thales Leites22 / 6622 / 660 / 00
5Michael Bisping28 / 6528 / 670 / 00

Michael Bisping

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights18

Thales Leites

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights13