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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Kelvin Gastelum won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1363

Elo1492

Michael BispingvsKelvin GastelumUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Gastelum · Saturday, November 25, 2017Shanghai, Hebei, China

Official fight result

Kelvin Gastelum won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:30

Style matchupMichael Bisping: Elusive strikervsKelvin Gastelum: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Michael Bisping wins(63.4%)

Actual result: Kelvin Gastelum wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Bisping at +243 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Kelvin Gastelum (53.5%).
Michael Bisping has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Michael Bisping

Red Corner

Kelvin Gastelum

Blue Corner

+243

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-285

(74%)

1363

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

5'9"

190.5 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael Bisping

oldest →

vs Thales Leites · Jul 15

vs Anderson Silva · Feb 16

KOvs Luke Rockhold · Jun 16

vs Dan Henderson · Oct 16

SUBvs Georges St-Pierre · Nov 17

latest

Kelvin Gastelum

oldest →

SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24

vs Joe Pyfer · Jun 25

vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael BispingMetricKelvin Gastelum

4.33

Strikes / min

3.65

2.71

Strikes absorbed / min

3.52

65%

Strike defense

57%

1.05

TDs / 15 min

1.04

63%

Takedown defense

60%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.62Δ 1.49 — meaningful gap+0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael BispingKelvin Gastelum

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Bisping(10 fights)Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -128.8|Blue +128.8

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -105.0|Blue +105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael BispingTargetKelvin Gastelum

By target zone

23% acc · 71%

Head

37% acc · 50%

100% acc · 14%

Body

83% acc · 36%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

29% acc · 100%

Distance

45% acc · 64%

Clinch

100% acc · 7%

Ground

67% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Bisping rounds

even

Kelvin Gastelum rounds

Round 1Kelvin Gastelum edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 24

Sig Strikes

14 / 27

29%

Sig Str %

51%

7 / 24

Total Strikes

14 / 27

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kelvin Gastelum	14 / 27	14 / 27	0 / 0	0
1	Michael Bisping	7 / 24	7 / 24	0 / 0	0

Michael Bisping

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights18

Kelvin Gastelum

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24