Middleweight

3 Rounds

Michael Bisping won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1363

Elo1490

Michael BispingvsJorge RiveraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch · Saturday, February 26, 2011Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Michael Bisping won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:54

Style matchupMichael Bisping: Elusive strikervsJorge Rivera: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Michael Bisping wins(54.5%)

Actual result: Michael Bisping wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Bisping at -290 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Bisping has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Michael Bisping

Red Corner

Jorge Rivera

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1363

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'1"

190.5 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael BispingL2 streak

oldest →

vs Anderson Silva · Feb 16

KOvs Luke Rockhold · Jun 16

vs Dan Henderson · Oct 16

SUBvs Georges St-Pierre · Nov 17

KOvs Kelvin Gastelum · Nov 17

latest

Jorge Rivera

oldest →

KOvs Nate Quarry · Mar 10

DECvs Costas Philippou · Aug 11

KOvs Eric Schafer · Jan 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael BispingMetricJorge Rivera

4.33

Strikes / min

3.16

2.71

Strikes absorbed / min

2.64

65%

Strike defense

54%

1.05

TDs / 15 min

0.84

63%

Takedown defense

63%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.62Δ 1.10 — meaningful gap+0.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Michael BispingJorge Rivera

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Michael Bisping(10 fights)Jorge Rivera(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -127.4|Blue +127.4

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -199.0|Blue +199.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael BispingTargetJorge Rivera

By target zone

35% acc · 80%

Head

13% acc · 75%

100% acc · 10%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 25%

By position

31% acc · 56%

Distance

15% acc · 100%

65% acc · 30%

Clinch

0% acc

64% acc · 14%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Michael Bisping rounds

even

Jorge Rivera rounds

Round 1Michael Bisping edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns3

Control1:07

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Michael Bisping edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:10

Knockdowns1

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

50 / 123

Sig Strikes

8 / 53

44%

Sig Str %

17.5%

57 / 132

Total Strikes

9 / 54

3 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

30%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:17

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jorge Rivera	4 / 37	5 / 38	0 / 0
1	Michael Bisping	15 / 72	20 / 79	3 / 5
2	Jorge Rivera	4 / 16	4 / 16	0 / 0
2	Michael Bisping	35 / 51	37 / 53	0 / 3

Michael Bisping

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights18

Jorge Rivera

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4