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Middleweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Michael Bisping won · U-DEC R5
Elo1363
Elo1491
Dan Henderson

Michael BispingvsDan HendersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson · Saturday, October 8, 2016Manchester, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Michael Bisping won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Michael Bisping wins(50.4%)

Actual result: Michael Bisping wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Bisping at -260 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Michael Bisping has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Michael Bisping
Red Corner
VS
Dan Henderson
Blue Corner
-260
(72%)
Vegas Odds
+220
(31%)
1363
Elo
1491
47
Age
55
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'11"
190.5 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael BispingL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Thales Leites · Jul 15
W
vs Anderson Silva · Feb 16
W
KOvs Luke Rockhold · Jun 16
L
SUBvs Georges St-Pierre · Nov 17
L
KOvs Kelvin Gastelum · Nov 17
latest
Dan Henderson
oldest →
L
SUBvs Daniel Cormier · May 14
L
KOvs Gegard Mousasi · Jan 15
W
KOvs Tim Boetsch · Jun 15
L
KOvs Vitor Belfort · Nov 15
W
KOvs Hector Lombard · Jun 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael BispingMetricDan Henderson
4.33
Strikes / min
2.44
2.71
Strikes absorbed / min
2.70
65%
Strike defense
51%
1.05
TDs / 15 min
1.52
63%
Takedown defense
57%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.62Δ 1.88 — meaningful gap-0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1613 vs 1487Strikes54.4 vs 26.2Takedowns1.0 vs 0.8Sub Atts0.19 vs 0.29Form0.9 vs 0.2
Michael BispingDan Henderson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Michael Bisping(10 fights)Dan Henderson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -127.8|Blue +127.8
Recent Form
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael BispingTargetDan Henderson

By target zone

90
31% acc · 76%
Head
46
25% acc · 57%
10
59% acc · 8%
Body
6
86% acc · 7%
19
76% acc · 16%
Leg
29
94% acc · 36%

By position

116
36% acc · 97%
Distance
71
37% acc · 88%
1
20% acc · 1%
Clinch
2
33% acc · 2%
2
50% acc · 2%
Ground
8
40% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

4
Michael Bisping rounds
0
even
1
Dan Henderson rounds
Round 1Dan Henderson edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:19Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2Michael Bisping edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:07Control
1Knockdowns
Round 3Michael Bisping edged it
Sig. strikes33
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Michael Bisping edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:00
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Michael Bisping edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:01
16Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:18Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
2
119 / 335
Sig Strikes
81 / 220
34.6%
Sig Str %
35.6%
130 / 348
Total Strikes
87 / 227
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 4
—
TD %
16.7%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:01
Ctrl Time
1:44

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Dan Henderson25 / 5927 / 610 / 10
1Michael Bisping16 / 5516 / 550 / 00
2Dan Henderson9 / 3413 / 390 / 00
2Michael Bisping25 / 7036 / 820 / 00
3Dan Henderson10 / 3810 / 380 / 10
3Michael Bisping33 / 7633 / 760 / 00
4Michael Bisping23 / 6723 / 670 / 00
4Dan Henderson21 / 4121 / 410 / 00
5Dan Henderson16 / 4816 / 481 / 20
5Michael Bisping22 / 6722 / 680 / 00

Michael Bisping

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights18

Dan Henderson

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights11