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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Michael Bisping won · U-DEC R3
Elo1363
Elo1491
CB Dollaway

Michael BispingvsCB DollawayUFC Prediction Result

UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi · Saturday, April 25, 2015Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Michael Bisping won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMichael Bisping: Elusive strikervsCB Dollaway: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: CB Dollaway wins(51.4%)

Actual result: Michael Bisping wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

CB Dollaway at +125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Michael Bisping has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Michael Bisping
Red Corner
VS
CB Dollaway
Blue Corner
-145
(59%)
Vegas Odds
+125
(44%)
1363
Elo
1491
47
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'2"
190.5 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael BispingL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Anderson Silva · Feb 16
W
KOvs Luke Rockhold · Jun 16
W
vs Dan Henderson · Oct 16
L
SUBvs Georges St-Pierre · Nov 17
L
KOvs Kelvin Gastelum · Nov 17
latest
CB Dollaway
oldest →
L
KOvs Lyoto Machida · Dec 14
L
KOvs Nate Marquardt · Dec 15
W
vs Ed Herman · Jul 17
W
vs Hector Lombard · Mar 18
L
KOvs Khalid Murtazaliev · Sep 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael BispingMetricCB Dollaway
4.33
Strikes / min
2.65
2.71
Strikes absorbed / min
2.58
65%
Strike defense
54%
1.05
TDs / 15 min
3.55
63%
Takedown defense
62%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.62Δ 1.55 — meaningful gap+0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1539 vs 1525Strikes49.8 vs 20.2Takedowns1.2 vs 1.9Sub Atts0.23 vs 0.60Form-0.2 vs -0.0
Michael BispingCB Dollaway

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Michael Bisping(10 fights)CB Dollaway(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -128.5|Blue +128.5
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red +1.9|Blue -1.9
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red +43.0|Blue -43.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael BispingTargetCB Dollaway

By target zone

56
32% acc · 75%
Head
36
31% acc · 77%
4
50% acc · 5%
Body
4
50% acc · 9%
15
83% acc · 20%
Leg
7
88% acc · 15%

By position

69
36% acc · 92%
Distance
40
35% acc · 85%
1
100% acc · 1%
Clinch
1
33% acc · 2%
5
63% acc · 7%
Ground
6
43% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Michael Bisping rounds
0
even
1
CB Dollaway rounds
Round 1CB Dollaway edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:30Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2Michael Bisping edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:00
11Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:07Control
Round 3Michael Bisping edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns0
Control0:22
15Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:40Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
75 / 202
Sig Strikes
47 / 131
37%
Sig Str %
35.3%
80 / 207
Total Strikes
49 / 134
0 / 0
TDs
2 / 8
—
TD %
19.3%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:22
Ctrl Time
1:17

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1CB Dollaway21 / 5322 / 550 / 10
1Michael Bisping23 / 7123 / 710 / 00
2CB Dollaway11 / 4311 / 431 / 30
2Michael Bisping24 / 6826 / 700 / 00
3CB Dollaway15 / 3516 / 361 / 40
3Michael Bisping28 / 6331 / 660 / 00

Michael Bisping

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights18

CB Dollaway

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights14