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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Michael Bisping won · U-DEC R3
Elo1363
Elo1352
Alan Belcher

Michael BispingvsAlan BelcherUFC Prediction Result

UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen · Saturday, April 27, 2013Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Michael Bisping won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 4:31

Style matchupMichael Bisping: Elusive strikervsAlan Belcher: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Alan Belcher wins(50.7%)

Actual result: Michael Bisping wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alan Belcher at +165 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Michael Bisping
Red Corner
VS
Alan Belcher
Blue Corner
-175
(64%)
Vegas Odds
+165
(38%)
1363
Elo
1352
47
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'2"
190.5 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Michael BispingL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Anderson Silva · Feb 16
W
KOvs Luke Rockhold · Jun 16
W
vs Dan Henderson · Oct 16
L
SUBvs Georges St-Pierre · Nov 17
L
KOvs Kelvin Gastelum · Nov 17
latest
Alan Belcher
oldest →
W
SUBvs Patrick Cote · May 10
W
KOvs Jason MacDonald · Sep 11
W
KOvs Rousimar Palhares · May 12
L
vs Yushin Okami · Dec 12
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Michael BispingMetricAlan Belcher
4.33
Strikes / min
2.70
2.71
Strikes absorbed / min
3.10
65%
Strike defense
59%
1.05
TDs / 15 min
0.44
63%
Takedown defense
55%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.62Δ 2.02 — meaningful gap-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1544 vs 1536Strikes47.4 vs 24.5Takedowns1.4 vs 0.3Sub Atts0.28 vs 0.57Form-0.1 vs -0.0
Michael BispingAlan Belcher

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Michael Bisping(10 fights)Alan Belcher(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +10.7|Blue -10.7
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -21.0|Blue +21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Michael BispingTargetAlan Belcher

By target zone

64
34% acc · 69%
Head
11
10% acc · 38%
3
43% acc · 3%
Body
7
37% acc · 24%
26
84% acc · 28%
Leg
11
55% acc · 38%

By position

92
42% acc · 99%
Distance
29
19% acc · 100%
1
25% acc · 1%
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Michael Bisping rounds
0
even
0
Alan Belcher rounds
Round 1Michael Bisping edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Michael Bisping edged it
Sig. strikes36
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Michael Bisping edged it
Sig. strikes34
Takedowns0
Control0:08
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
93 / 225
Sig Strikes
29 / 150
41%
Sig Str %
19%
94 / 226
Total Strikes
29 / 150
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 3
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:08
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Alan Belcher13 / 4913 / 490 / 10
1Michael Bisping23 / 5623 / 560 / 00
2Alan Belcher10 / 4910 / 490 / 10
2Michael Bisping36 / 8536 / 850 / 00
3Alan Belcher6 / 526 / 520 / 10
3Michael Bisping34 / 8435 / 850 / 00

Michael Bisping

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights18

Alan Belcher

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights5