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Bantamweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Merab Dvalishvili won · U-DEC R5
Elo1542
Merab Dvalishvili
Elo1537
Umar Nurmagomedov

Merab DvalishvilivsUmar NurmagomedovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Saturday, January 18, 2025Inglewood, California, USA

Official fight result

Merab Dvalishvili won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupMerab Dvalishvili: WrestlervsUmar Nurmagomedov: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili wins(72.9%)

Actual result: Merab Dvalishvili wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Merab Dvalishvili at +220 American odds

+$220 profit

$320 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Umar Nurmagomedov enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Merab Dvalishvili
Red Corner
VS
Umar Nurmagomedov
Blue Corner
+220
(31%)
Vegas Odds
-270
(73%)
1542
Elo
1537
35
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'8"
172.72 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Merab Dvalishvili
oldest →
W
vs Henry Cejudo · Feb 24
W
vs Sean O'Malley · Sep 24
W
SUBvs Sean O'Malley · Jun 25
W
vs Cory Sandhagen · Oct 25
L
vs Petr Yan · Dec 25
latest
Umar NurmagomedovW5 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Raoni Barcelos · Jan 23
W
vs Bekzat Almakhan · Mar 24
W
vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 24
W
vs Mario Bautista · Oct 25
W
vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Jan 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Merab DvalishviliMetricUmar Nurmagomedov
4.42
Strikes / min
3.86
2.80
Strikes absorbed / min
1.86
54%
Strike defense
61%
5.97
TDs / 15 min
4.03
76%
Takedown defense
79%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.62evenly matched on net striking+2.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1647 vs 1597Strikes4.4 vs 3.9Takedowns6.0 vs 4.0Sub Atts0.30 vs 0.20Form1.1 vs 1.0
Merab DvalishviliUmar Nurmagomedov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901510153015501570← oldermost recent →
Merab Dvalishvili(10 fights)Umar Nurmagomedov(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +5.6|Blue -5.6
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red -42.0|Blue +42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Merab DvalishviliTargetUmar Nurmagomedov

By target zone

71
34% acc · 64%
Head
76
38% acc · 73%
30
81% acc · 27%
Body
22
73% acc · 21%
10
67% acc · 9%
Leg
6
75% acc · 6%

By position

88
40% acc · 79%
Distance
92
42% acc · 88%
22
59% acc · 20%
Clinch
12
67% acc · 12%
1
33% acc · 1%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Merab Dvalishvili rounds
0
even
2
Umar Nurmagomedov rounds
Round 1Merab Dvalishvili edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:02
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Round 2Umar Nurmagomedov edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:15
25Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:48Control
Round 3Umar Nurmagomedov edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns1
Control0:07
22Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:43Control
Round 4Merab Dvalishvili edged it
Sig. strikes36
Takedowns4
Control1:05
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
Round 5Merab Dvalishvili edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns2
Control0:53
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
111 / 259
Sig Strikes
104 / 237
41.2%
Sig Str %
43.4%
142 / 293
Total Strikes
113 / 246
7 / 30
TDs
2 / 15
16%
TD %
10.6%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:22
Ctrl Time
1:37

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Umar Nurmagomedov18 / 4918 / 490 / 20
1Merab Dvalishvili20 / 4721 / 480 / 10
2Umar Nurmagomedov25 / 4726 / 481 / 30
2Merab Dvalishvili20 / 4927 / 580 / 30
3Umar Nurmagomedov22 / 4825 / 511 / 50
3Merab Dvalishvili21 / 5425 / 581 / 50
4Umar Nurmagomedov21 / 4726 / 520 / 40
4Merab Dvalishvili36 / 7048 / 824 / 90
5Merab Dvalishvili14 / 3921 / 472 / 120
5Umar Nurmagomedov18 / 4618 / 460 / 10

Merab Dvalishvili

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights17

Umar Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights9