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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Merab Dvalishvili won · U-DEC R3

Elo1542

Elo1367

Merab DvalishvilivsTerrion WareUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · Saturday, September 15, 2018Moscow, Moscow, Russia

Official fight result

Merab Dvalishvili won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMerab Dvalishvili: WrestlervsTerrion Ware: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili wins(68.6%)

Actual result: Merab Dvalishvili wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Merab Dvalishvili at -550 American odds

+$18 profit

$118 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Terrion Ware enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Merab Dvalishvili has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Merab Dvalishvili

Red Corner

Terrion Ware

Blue Corner

-550

(85%)

Vegas Odds

+425

(19%)

1542

Elo

1367

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'8"

172.72 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Merab Dvalishvili

oldest →

vs Sean O'Malley · Sep 24

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Jan 25

SUBvs Sean O'Malley · Jun 25

vs Cory Sandhagen · Oct 25

vs Petr Yan · Dec 25

latest

Terrion WareL3 streak

oldest →

vs Cody Stamann · Jul 17

vs Sean O'Malley · Dec 17

vs Tom Duquesnoy · Mar 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Merab DvalishviliMetricTerrion Ware

4.42

Strikes / min

4.02

2.80

Strikes absorbed / min

6.07

54%

Strike defense

50%

5.97

TDs / 15 min

0.50

76%

Takedown defense

44%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.62Δ 3.67 — meaningful gap-2.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Merab DvalishviliTerrion Ware

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Merab Dvalishvili(10 fights)Terrion Ware(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +175.0|Blue -175.0

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Merab DvalishviliTargetTerrion Ware

By target zone

34% acc · 82%

Head

18% acc · 63%

63% acc · 8%

Body

60% acc · 38%

75% acc · 10%

Leg

0% acc

By position

14% acc · 10%

Distance

11% acc · 38%

50% acc · 8%

Clinch

46% acc · 82%

Ground

71% acc · 63%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Merab Dvalishvili rounds

even

Terrion Ware rounds

Round 1Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns2

Control4:01

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control2:58

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns1

Control4:33

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

62 / 165

Sig Strikes

8 / 34

35.3%

Sig Str %

31.7%

205 / 330

Total Strikes

22 / 51

5 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

72%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

11:32

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Terrion Ware	2 / 7	5 / 10	0 / 0
1	Merab Dvalishvili	22 / 49	67 / 103	2 / 4
2	Terrion Ware	2 / 20	8 / 27	0 / 0
2	Merab Dvalishvili	9 / 38	41 / 74	2 / 3
3	Terrion Ware	4 / 7	9 / 14	0 / 0
3	Merab Dvalishvili	31 / 78	97 / 153	1 / 1

Merab Dvalishvili

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17

Terrion Ware

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4