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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Ricky Simon won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1542

Elo1500

Merab DvalishvilivsRicky SimonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · Saturday, April 21, 2018Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Ricky Simon won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMerab Dvalishvili: WrestlervsRicky Simon: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili wins(67.6%)

Actual result: Ricky Simon wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Merab Dvalishvili at -110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Merab Dvalishvili

Red Corner

Ricky Simon

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1542

Elo

1500

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Merab Dvalishvili

oldest →

vs Sean O'Malley · Sep 24

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Jan 25

SUBvs Sean O'Malley · Jun 25

vs Cory Sandhagen · Oct 25

vs Petr Yan · Dec 25

latest

Ricky Simon

oldest →

vs Vinicius Oliveira · Jun 24

KOvs Javid Basharat · Feb 25

vs Cameron Smotherman · Jun 25

vs Raoni Barcelos · Nov 25

vs Adrian Yanez · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Merab DvalishviliMetricRicky Simon

4.42

Strikes / min

3.03

2.80

Strikes absorbed / min

3.90

54%

Strike defense

61%

5.97

TDs / 15 min

4.49

76%

Takedown defense

76%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.62Δ 2.49 — meaningful gap-0.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Merab DvalishviliRicky Simon

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Merab Dvalishvili(10 fights)Ricky Simon(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +42.1|Blue -42.1

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Merab DvalishviliTargetRicky Simon

By target zone

23% acc · 69%

Head

27% acc · 74%

67% acc · 13%

Body

67% acc · 18%

85% acc · 18%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

29% acc · 92%

Distance

29% acc · 82%

33% acc · 8%

Clinch

71% acc · 15%

0% acc

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Merab Dvalishvili rounds

even

Ricky Simon rounds

Round 1Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns5

Control1:27

Knockdowns1

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:46

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:33Control

Round 3Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control0:30

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:06Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

61 / 210

Sig Strikes

34 / 103

28%

Sig Str %

30.3%

82 / 233

Total Strikes

38 / 108

6 / 22

TDs

2 / 7

20.3%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

2:43

Ctrl Time

2:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ricky Simon	9 / 34	9 / 34	0 / 3	0
1	Merab Dvalishvili	25 / 79	34 / 89	5 / 12	0
2	Ricky Simon	20 / 44	22 / 46	1 / 2	0
2	Merab Dvalishvili	21 / 73	25 / 77	0 / 5	0
3	Ricky Simon	5 / 25	7 / 28	1 / 2	1
3	Merab Dvalishvili	15 / 58	23 / 67	1 / 5	0

Merab Dvalishvili

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17

Ricky Simon

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights17