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Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Petr Yan won · U-DEC R5

Elo1542

Elo1532

Merab DvalishvilivsPetr YanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · Saturday, December 6, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Petr Yan won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupMerab Dvalishvili: WrestlervsPetr Yan: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili wins(56.1%)

Actual result: Petr Yan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Merab Dvalishvili at -375 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Merab Dvalishvili enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Petr Yan enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Petr Yan (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Merab Dvalishvili

Red Corner

Petr Yan

Blue Corner

-375

(79%)

Vegas Odds

+300

(25%)

1542

Elo

1532

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'6"

Height

5'7"

172.72 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Merab DvalishviliW5 streak

oldest →

vs Henry Cejudo · Feb 24

vs Sean O'Malley · Sep 24

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Jan 25

SUBvs Sean O'Malley · Jun 25

vs Cory Sandhagen · Oct 25

latest

Petr YanW3 streak

oldest →

vs Sean O'Malley · Oct 22

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Mar 23

vs Song Yadong · Mar 24

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Nov 24

vs Marcus McGhee · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Merab DvalishviliMetricPetr Yan

4.42

Strikes / min

5.16

2.80

Strikes absorbed / min

4.24

54%

Strike defense

59%

5.97

TDs / 15 min

1.70

76%

Takedown defense

86%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.62evenly matched on net striking+0.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Merab DvalishviliPetr Yan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Merab Dvalishvili(10 fights)Petr Yan(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +10.3|Blue -10.3

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Merab DvalishviliTargetPetr Yan

By target zone

105

31% acc · 78%

Head

109

56% acc · 78%

65% acc · 16%

Body

89% acc · 12%

88% acc · 5%

Leg

81% acc · 9%

By position

116

33% acc · 87%

Distance

119

58% acc · 86%

60% acc · 13%

Clinch

75% acc · 13%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Merab Dvalishvili rounds

even

Petr Yan rounds

Round 1Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control1:33

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control2:06

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:34Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns2

Control1:07

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 4Petr Yan edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:15

38Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:14Control

Round 5Petr Yan edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:11

38Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:48Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

134 / 383

Sig Strikes

139 / 230

35%

Sig Str %

59.4%

196 / 458

Total Strikes

159 / 251

2 / 29

TDs

5 / 9

5.6%

TD %

62.5%

Sub Att

Rev

5:12

Ctrl Time

2:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Petr Yan	17 / 32	23 / 38	0 / 0	0
1	Merab Dvalishvili	22 / 68	40 / 87	0 / 8	0
2	Petr Yan	21 / 34	25 / 38	1 / 1	0
2	Merab Dvalishvili	19 / 73	41 / 97	0 / 5	0
3	Merab Dvalishvili	21 / 62	32 / 77	2 / 7	0
3	Petr Yan	25 / 46	33 / 55	1 / 2	0
4	Petr Yan	38 / 55	40 / 57	1 / 2	0
4	Merab Dvalishvili	37 / 71	43 / 80	0 / 4	1
5	Petr Yan	38 / 63	38 / 63	2 / 4	0
5	Merab Dvalishvili	35 / 109	40 / 117	0 / 5	1

Merab Dvalishvili

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17

Petr Yan

StanceSwitch

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15