← All fights/Event page

Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Merab Dvalishvili won · U-DEC R3

Elo1542

Elo1472

Merab DvalishvilivsHenry CejudoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Saturday, February 17, 2024Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Merab Dvalishvili won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMerab Dvalishvili: WrestlervsHenry Cejudo: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili wins(83.1%)

Actual result: Merab Dvalishvili wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Merab Dvalishvili at -298 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Henry Cejudo enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Merab Dvalishvili has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Merab Dvalishvili

Red Corner

Henry Cejudo

Blue Corner

-298

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+240

(29%)

1542

Elo

1472

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'4"

172.72 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Merab Dvalishvili

oldest →

vs Sean O'Malley · Sep 24

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Jan 25

SUBvs Sean O'Malley · Jun 25

vs Cory Sandhagen · Oct 25

vs Petr Yan · Dec 25

latest

Henry CejudoL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Marlon Moraes · Jun 19

KOvs Dominick Cruz · May 20

vs Aljamain Sterling · May 23

vs Song Yadong · Feb 25

vs Payton Talbott · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Merab DvalishviliMetricHenry Cejudo

4.42

Strikes / min

3.83

2.80

Strikes absorbed / min

3.84

54%

Strike defense

57%

5.97

TDs / 15 min

1.78

76%

Takedown defense

72%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.62Δ 1.63 — meaningful gap-0.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Merab DvalishviliHenry Cejudo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Merab Dvalishvili(10 fights)Henry Cejudo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +70.4|Blue -70.4

Recent Form

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Striker Score

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Merab DvalishviliTargetHenry Cejudo

By target zone

34% acc · 59%

Head

24% acc · 45%

59% acc · 27%

Body

45% acc · 17%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

85% acc · 38%

By position

38% acc · 69%

Distance

35% acc · 83%

54% acc · 18%

Clinch

50% acc · 17%

71% acc · 14%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Merab Dvalishvili rounds

even

Henry Cejudo rounds

Round 1Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control0:13

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:53Control

Round 2Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns2

Control1:46

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 3Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns2

Control2:24

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

74 / 172

Sig Strikes

29 / 78

43.7%

Sig Str %

39%

167 / 273

Total Strikes

54 / 106

5 / 11

TDs

1 / 7

46.7%

TD %

10%

Sub Att

Rev

4:23

Ctrl Time

2:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Henry Cejudo	11 / 20	36 / 48	0 / 0	0
1	Merab Dvalishvili	16 / 32	42 / 59	1 / 2	0
2	Henry Cejudo	9 / 29	9 / 29	1 / 5	0
2	Merab Dvalishvili	34 / 78	49 / 94	2 / 4	1
3	Henry Cejudo	9 / 29	9 / 29	0 / 2	0
3	Merab Dvalishvili	24 / 62	76 / 120	2 / 5	0

Merab Dvalishvili

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17

Henry Cejudo

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights16