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Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Merab Dvalishvili won · U-DEC R3

Elo1542

Elo1493

Merab DvalishvilivsGustavo LopezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo · Saturday, June 13, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Merab Dvalishvili won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili wins(86.4%)

Actual result: Merab Dvalishvili wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Merab Dvalishvili at -800 American odds

+$13 profit

$113 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Merab Dvalishvili has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Merab Dvalishvili

Red Corner

Gustavo Lopez

Blue Corner

-800

(89%)

Vegas Odds

+635

(14%)

1542

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

172.72 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Merab Dvalishvili

oldest →

vs Sean O'Malley · Sep 24

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Jan 25

SUBvs Sean O'Malley · Jun 25

vs Cory Sandhagen · Oct 25

vs Petr Yan · Dec 25

latest

Gustavo Lopez

oldest →

SUBvs Anthony Birchak · Nov 20

KOvs Adrian Yanez · Mar 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Merab DvalishviliMetricGustavo Lopez

4.42

Strikes / min

2.48

2.80

Strikes absorbed / min

3.87

54%

Strike defense

57%

5.97

TDs / 15 min

1.74

76%

Takedown defense

31%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.62Δ 3.01 — meaningful gap-1.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Merab DvalishviliGustavo Lopez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Merab Dvalishvili(10 fights)Gustavo Lopez(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +49.4|Blue -49.4

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -47.9|Blue +47.9

Grappler Score

Red -49.2|Blue +49.2

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Merab DvalishviliTargetGustavo Lopez

By target zone

47% acc · 64%

Head

11% acc · 36%

87% acc · 18%

Body

100% acc · 36%

93% acc · 18%

Leg

67% acc · 29%

By position

43% acc · 32%

Distance

23% acc · 71%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

29% acc · 29%

66% acc · 64%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Merab Dvalishvili rounds

even

Gustavo Lopez rounds

Round 1Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns4

Control2:35

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns5

Control3:25

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 3Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns4

Control3:15

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

73 / 128

Sig Strikes

14 / 57

55.7%

Sig Str %

25.3%

110 / 187

Total Strikes

49 / 103

13 / 18

TDs

0 / 0

77.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

9:15

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Gustavo Lopez	4 / 20	25 / 47	0 / 0	0
1	Merab Dvalishvili	27 / 46	40 / 64	4 / 8	0
2	Gustavo Lopez	5 / 14	13 / 25	0 / 0	0
2	Merab Dvalishvili	13 / 25	23 / 45	5 / 6	2
3	Gustavo Lopez	5 / 23	11 / 31	0 / 0	0
3	Merab Dvalishvili	33 / 57	47 / 78	4 / 4	0

Merab Dvalishvili

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17

Gustavo Lopez

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights3