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Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Merab Dvalishvili won · U-DEC R5

Elo1542

Elo1484

Merab DvalishvilivsCory SandhagenUFC Prediction Result

UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · Saturday, October 4, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Merab Dvalishvili won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupMerab Dvalishvili: WrestlervsCory Sandhagen: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili wins(82.0%)

Actual result: Merab Dvalishvili wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Merab Dvalishvili at -420 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Merab Dvalishvili has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Cory Sandhagen (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Merab Dvalishvili

Red Corner

Cory Sandhagen

Blue Corner

-420

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+330

(23%)

1542

Elo

1484

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'6"

Height

5'11"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Merab Dvalishvili

oldest →

vs Henry Cejudo · Feb 24

vs Sean O'Malley · Sep 24

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Jan 25

SUBvs Sean O'Malley · Jun 25

vs Petr Yan · Dec 25

latest

Cory Sandhagen

oldest →

vs Marlon Vera · Mar 23

vs Rob Font · Aug 23

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Aug 24

KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · May 25

DECvs Mario Bautista · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Merab DvalishviliMetricCory Sandhagen

4.42

Strikes / min

4.86

2.80

Strikes absorbed / min

3.47

54%

Strike defense

56%

5.97

TDs / 15 min

1.15

76%

Takedown defense

56%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.62evenly matched on net striking+1.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Merab DvalishviliCory Sandhagen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Merab Dvalishvili(10 fights)Cory Sandhagen(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +58.0|Blue -58.0

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Merab DvalishviliTargetCory Sandhagen

By target zone

37% acc · 75%

Head

32% acc · 57%

72% acc · 11%

Body

78% acc · 23%

94% acc · 13%

Leg

89% acc · 20%

By position

36% acc · 69%

Distance

43% acc · 100%

81% acc · 19%

Clinch

72% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Merab Dvalishvili rounds

even

Cory Sandhagen rounds

Round 1Cory Sandhagen edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control0:52

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns8

Control3:43

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns3

Control1:57

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns2

Control1:26

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns6

Control2:04

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

114 / 265

Sig Strikes

80 / 184

41.8%

Sig Str %

39.2%

243 / 399

Total Strikes

149 / 257

20 / 37

TDs

0 / 0

49.6%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

10:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Merab Dvalishvili	11 / 46	32 / 67	1 / 4
1	Cory Sandhagen	27 / 53	58 / 85	0 / 0
2	Merab Dvalishvili	33 / 49	73 / 92	8 / 13
2	Cory Sandhagen	2 / 9	23 / 32	0 / 0
3	Merab Dvalishvili	15 / 48	46 / 80	3 / 8
3	Cory Sandhagen	14 / 35	24 / 45	0 / 0
4	Merab Dvalishvili	21 / 56	31 / 66	2 / 4
4	Cory Sandhagen	19 / 43	21 / 46	0 / 0
5	Merab Dvalishvili	34 / 66	61 / 94	6 / 8
5	Cory Sandhagen	18 / 44	23 / 49	0 / 0

Merab Dvalishvili

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17

Cory Sandhagen

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17