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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Melvin Guillard won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1490

Melvin GuillardvsWaylon LoweUFC Prediction Result

UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans · Saturday, May 29, 2010Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Melvin Guillard won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:28

Style matchupMelvin Guillard: Well-roundedvsWaylon Lowe: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Melvin Guillard wins(75.8%)

Actual result: Melvin Guillard wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Melvin Guillard at -370 American odds

+$27 profit

$127 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Melvin Guillard is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Waylon Lowe has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Melvin Guillard has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Waylon Lowe has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Waylon Lowe (53.5%).
Melvin Guillard has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Melvin Guillard

Red Corner

Waylon Lowe

Blue Corner

-370

(79%)

Vegas Odds

+310

(24%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'7"

180.34 cm

Reach

165 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Melvin Guillard

oldest →

vs Fabricio Camoes · Jul 12

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 12

vs Jamie Varner · Dec 12

KOvs Mac Danzig · Jul 13

vs Michael Johnson · Mar 14

latest

Waylon Lowe

oldest →

vs Steve Lopez · Sep 10

vs Willamy Freire · Jan 11

SUBvs Nik Lentz · Mar 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Melvin GuillardMetricWaylon Lowe

2.96

Strikes / min

1.88

1.85

Strikes absorbed / min

2.40

66%

Strike defense

53%

1.30

TDs / 15 min

4.47

61%

Takedown defense

83%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.11Δ 1.63 — meaningful gap-0.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Melvin GuillardWaylon Lowe

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Melvin Guillard(10 fights)Waylon Lowe(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Melvin GuillardTargetWaylon Lowe

By target zone

61% acc · 79%

Head

17% acc · 100%

100% acc · 7%

Body

100% acc · 14%

Leg

By position

36% acc · 29%

Distance

0% acc

100% acc · 36%

Clinch

33% acc · 100%

100% acc · 36%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Melvin Guillard rounds

even

Waylon Lowe rounds

Round 1Melvin Guillard edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:27Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 21

Sig Strikes

1 / 6

66%

Sig Str %

16%

20 / 27

Total Strikes

1 / 6

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 6

—

TD %

16%

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

1:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Waylon Lowe	1 / 6	1 / 6	1 / 6	0
1	Melvin Guillard	14 / 21	20 / 27	0 / 0	0

Melvin Guillard

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights11

Waylon Lowe

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach—

Fights4