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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Melvin Guillard won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1490

Melvin GuillardvsShane RollerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber · Saturday, July 2, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Melvin Guillard won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:12

Style matchupMelvin Guillard: Well-roundedvsShane Roller: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Shane Roller wins(58.7%)

Actual result: Melvin Guillard wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Shane Roller at +255 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Melvin Guillard has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Melvin Guillard

Red Corner

Shane Roller

Blue Corner

-280

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+255

(28%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Melvin Guillard

oldest →

vs Fabricio Camoes · Jul 12

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 12

vs Jamie Varner · Dec 12

KOvs Mac Danzig · Jul 13

vs Michael Johnson · Mar 14

latest

Shane Roller

oldest →

KOvs Thiago Tavares · Mar 11

SUBvs TJ Grant · Oct 11

vs Michael Johnson · Jan 12

vs John Alessio · Jul 12

SUBvs Jacob Volkmann · Oct 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Melvin GuillardMetricShane Roller

2.96

Strikes / min

2.04

1.85

Strikes absorbed / min

2.65

66%

Strike defense

60%

1.30

TDs / 15 min

2.46

61%

Takedown defense

42%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.11Δ 1.72 — meaningful gap-0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Melvin GuillardShane Roller

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Melvin Guillard(10 fights)Shane Roller(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +40.0|Blue -40.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Melvin GuillardTargetShane Roller

By target zone

37% acc · 65%

Head

10% acc · 100%

38% acc · 18%

Body

0% acc

75% acc · 18%

Leg

By position

33% acc · 65%

Distance

8% acc · 100%

100% acc · 12%

Clinch

57% acc · 24%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Melvin Guillard rounds

even

Shane Roller rounds

Round 1Melvin Guillard edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns2

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 42

Sig Strikes

1 / 13

40%

Sig Str %

17 / 42

Total Strikes

1 / 13

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Shane Roller	1 / 13	1 / 13	0 / 0	0
1	Melvin Guillard	17 / 42	17 / 42	0 / 0	0

Melvin Guillard

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights11

Shane Roller

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights6