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FIGHTDETECTIVE
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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Joe Lauzon won · SUB R1
Elo1490
Melvin Guillard
Elo1492

Melvin GuillardvsJoe LauzonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3 · Saturday, October 8, 2011Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Joe Lauzon won

SUB · Round 1 · 0:47

Style matchupMelvin Guillard: Well-roundedvsJoe Lauzon: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Melvin Guillard wins(70.2%)

Actual result: Joe Lauzon wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Melvin Guillard at -500 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Joe Lauzon threatens submissions; Melvin Guillard has lost 40% of fights by sub.
  • Melvin Guillard has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Melvin Guillard
Red Corner
VS
Joe Lauzon
Blue Corner
-500
(83%)
Vegas Odds
+435
(19%)
1490
Elo
1492
43
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'10"
180.34 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Melvin Guillard
oldest →
W
vs Fabricio Camoes · Jul 12
L
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 12
L
vs Jamie Varner · Dec 12
W
KOvs Mac Danzig · Jul 13
L
vs Michael Johnson · Mar 14
latest
Joe Lauzon
oldest →
W
vs Marcin Held · Jan 17
L
vs Stevie Ray · Apr 17
L
KOvs Clay Guida · Nov 17
L
KOvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Apr 18
W
KOvs Jonathan Pearce · Oct 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Melvin GuillardMetricJoe Lauzon
2.96
Strikes / min
2.84
1.85
Strikes absorbed / min
5.39
66%
Strike defense
54%
1.30
TDs / 15 min
2.39
61%
Takedown defense
54%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
2.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.11Δ 3.66 — meaningful gap-2.55

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1570 vs 1519Strikes18.2 vs 13.0Takedowns0.9 vs 1.6Sub Atts0.07 vs 1.90Form1.0 vs 0.4
Melvin GuillardJoe Lauzon

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Melvin Guillard(10 fights)Joe Lauzon(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -1.6|Blue +1.6
Recent Form
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Layoff
Red -6.0|Blue +6.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Melvin GuillardTargetJoe Lauzon

By target zone

2
40% acc · 67%
Head
2
33% acc · 100%
1
100% acc · 33%
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

3
50% acc · 100%
Distance
2
33% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Melvin Guillard rounds
1
even
0
Joe Lauzon rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:19Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
3 / 6
Sig Strikes
2 / 6
50%
Sig Str %
33%
3 / 6
Total Strikes
2 / 6
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:19

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Joe Lauzon2 / 62 / 60 / 01
1Melvin Guillard3 / 63 / 60 / 00

Melvin Guillard

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights11

Joe Lauzon

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights20