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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Jim Miller won · SUB R1

Elo1490

Elo1516

Melvin GuillardvsJim MillerUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller · Friday, January 20, 2012Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Jim Miller won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:04

Style matchupMelvin Guillard: Well-roundedvsJim Miller: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Jim Miller wins(66.2%)

Actual result: Jim Miller wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jim Miller at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jim Miller threatens submissions; Melvin Guillard has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Melvin Guillard has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Jim Miller (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Melvin Guillard

Red Corner

Jim Miller

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1490

Elo

1516

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Melvin Guillard

oldest →

vs Fabricio Camoes · Jul 12

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 12

vs Jamie Varner · Dec 12

KOvs Mac Danzig · Jul 13

vs Michael Johnson · Mar 14

latest

Jim Miller

oldest →

SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Jan 24

vs King Green · Apr 24

SUBvs Damon Jackson · Nov 24

vs Chase Hooper · Apr 25

SUBvs Jared Gordon · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Melvin GuillardMetricJim Miller

2.96

Strikes / min

2.92

1.85

Strikes absorbed / min

3.43

66%

Strike defense

56%

1.30

TDs / 15 min

1.49

61%

Takedown defense

47%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.11Δ 1.62 — meaningful gap-0.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Melvin GuillardJim Miller

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Melvin Guillard(10 fights)Jim Miller(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -25.9|Blue +25.9

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -55.0|Blue +55.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Melvin GuillardTargetJim Miller

By target zone

57% acc · 75%

Head

29% acc · 50%

100% acc · 25%

Body

67% acc · 50%

0% acc

Leg

0% acc

By position

50% acc · 44%

Distance

33% acc · 100%

67% acc · 25%

Clinch

83% acc · 31%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Melvin Guillard rounds

even

Jim Miller rounds

Round 1Melvin Guillard edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:01

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:59Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 26

Sig Strikes

4 / 12

61%

Sig Str %

33%

21 / 31

Total Strikes

5 / 13

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 3

—

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

0:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jim Miller	4 / 12	5 / 13	1 / 3	1
1	Melvin Guillard	16 / 26	21 / 31	0 / 0	0

Melvin Guillard

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights11

Jim Miller

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights40