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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Melvin Guillard won · S-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1473

Melvin GuillardvsJeremy StephensUFC Prediction Result

UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop · Saturday, September 25, 2010Indianapolis, Indiana, USA

Official fight result

Melvin Guillard won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMelvin Guillard: Well-roundedvsJeremy Stephens: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Jeremy Stephens wins(57.6%)

Actual result: Melvin Guillard wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jeremy Stephens at -105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jeremy Stephens enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Melvin Guillard

Red Corner

Jeremy Stephens

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1490

Elo

1473

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Melvin Guillard

oldest →

vs Fabricio Camoes · Jul 12

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 12

vs Jamie Varner · Dec 12

KOvs Mac Danzig · Jul 13

vs Michael Johnson · Mar 14

latest

Jeremy StephensL5 streak

oldest →

vs Yair Rodriguez · Oct 19

KOvs Calvin Kattar · May 20

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Jul 21

vs Mason Jones · May 25

SUBvs King Green · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Melvin GuillardMetricJeremy Stephens

2.96

Strikes / min

3.13

1.85

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

66%

Strike defense

57%

1.30

TDs / 15 min

1.10

61%

Takedown defense

61%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.11Δ 1.23 — meaningful gap-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Melvin GuillardJeremy Stephens

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Melvin Guillard(10 fights)Jeremy Stephens(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +17.7|Blue -17.7

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Melvin GuillardTargetJeremy Stephens

By target zone

32% acc · 58%

Head

22% acc · 29%

85% acc · 32%

Body

72% acc · 29%

89% acc · 11%

Leg

55% acc · 42%

By position

43% acc · 99%

Distance

40% acc · 100%

50% acc · 1%

Clinch

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Melvin Guillard rounds

even

Jeremy Stephens rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Melvin Guillard edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

73 / 168

Sig Strikes

62 / 155

43.7%

Sig Str %

39.3%

73 / 168

Total Strikes

62 / 155

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jeremy Stephens	18 / 46	18 / 46	0 / 0
1	Melvin Guillard	26 / 49	26 / 49	0 / 0
2	Jeremy Stephens	18 / 53	18 / 53	0 / 1
2	Melvin Guillard	22 / 60	22 / 60	0 / 1
3	Jeremy Stephens	26 / 56	26 / 56	0 / 1
3	Melvin Guillard	25 / 59	25 / 59	0 / 0

Melvin Guillard

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights11

Jeremy Stephens

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights27