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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jamie Varner won · S-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1354

Melvin GuillardvsJamie VarnerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · Saturday, December 29, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jamie Varner won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMelvin Guillard: Well-roundedvsJamie Varner: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Jamie Varner wins(63.7%)

Actual result: Jamie Varner wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jamie Varner at +130 American odds

+$130 profit

$230 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jamie Varner enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Melvin Guillard

Red Corner

Jamie Varner

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1490

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Melvin Guillard

oldest →

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jan 12

vs Fabricio Camoes · Jul 12

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 12

KOvs Mac Danzig · Jul 13

vs Michael Johnson · Mar 14

latest

Jamie VarnerL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Joe Lauzon · Aug 12

vs Gleison Tibau · Aug 13

KOvs Abel Trujillo · Feb 14

KOvs James Krause · May 14

SUBvs Drew Dober · Dec 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Melvin GuillardMetricJamie Varner

2.96

Strikes / min

2.92

1.85

Strikes absorbed / min

2.55

66%

Strike defense

58%

1.30

TDs / 15 min

3.49

61%

Takedown defense

66%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.11evenly matched on net striking+0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Melvin GuillardJamie Varner

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Melvin Guillard(10 fights)Jamie Varner(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +136.3|Blue -136.3

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Melvin GuillardTargetJamie Varner

By target zone

36% acc · 54%

Head

28% acc · 72%

91% acc · 18%

Body

58% acc · 22%

100% acc · 28%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

49% acc · 86%

Distance

31% acc · 84%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

45% acc · 16%

63% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Melvin Guillard rounds

even

Jamie Varner rounds

Round 1Jamie Varner edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 2Melvin Guillard edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:04

11Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:13Control

Round 3Jamie Varner edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:55

3Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

2:26Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

57 / 112

Sig Strikes

32 / 97

50%

Sig Str %

31%

62 / 117

Total Strikes

66 / 148

0 / 1

TDs

7 / 10

TD %

72%

Sub Att

Rev

0:59

Ctrl Time

3:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jamie Varner	18 / 47	19 / 49	1 / 2	1
1	Melvin Guillard	19 / 38	19 / 38	0 / 0	0
2	Jamie Varner	11 / 39	19 / 50	2 / 2	0
2	Melvin Guillard	26 / 48	27 / 49	0 / 1	0
3	Jamie Varner	3 / 11	28 / 49	4 / 6	0
3	Melvin Guillard	12 / 26	16 / 30	0 / 0	1

Melvin Guillard

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights11

Jamie Varner

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7