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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Melvin Guillard won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1354

Melvin GuillardvsFabricio CamoesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2 · Saturday, July 7, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Melvin Guillard won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMelvin Guillard: Well-roundedvsFabricio Camoes: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Melvin Guillard wins(54.6%)

Actual result: Melvin Guillard wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Melvin Guillard at -290 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Fabricio Camoes threatens submissions; Melvin Guillard has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Melvin Guillard has 41pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Melvin Guillard

Red Corner

Fabricio Camoes

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1490

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Melvin Guillard

oldest →

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jan 12

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 12

vs Jamie Varner · Dec 12

KOvs Mac Danzig · Jul 13

vs Michael Johnson · Mar 14

latest

Fabricio CamoesL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kurt Pellegrino · Mar 10

SUBvs Tommy Hayden · Jan 12

SUBvs Jim Miller · Dec 13

SUBvs Anthony Rocco Martin · Oct 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Melvin GuillardMetricFabricio Camoes

2.96

Strikes / min

1.29

1.85

Strikes absorbed / min

1.85

66%

Strike defense

61%

1.30

TDs / 15 min

2.34

61%

Takedown defense

20%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.11Δ 1.67 — meaningful gap-0.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Melvin GuillardFabricio Camoes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Melvin Guillard(10 fights)Fabricio Camoes(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +136.5|Blue -136.5

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Melvin GuillardTargetFabricio Camoes

By target zone

30% acc · 73%

Head

13% acc · 39%

80% acc · 22%

Body

33% acc · 11%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

69% acc · 50%

By position

34% acc · 76%

Distance

24% acc · 89%

17% acc · 3%

Clinch

50% acc · 6%

67% acc · 22%

Ground

25% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Melvin Guillard rounds

even

Fabricio Camoes rounds

Round 1Melvin Guillard edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:52

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:57Control

Round 2Melvin Guillard edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:30

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:08Control

Round 3Melvin Guillard edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 101

Sig Strikes

18 / 74

36.3%

Sig Str %

24.3%

57 / 125

Total Strikes

33 / 92

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 11

100%

TD %

8.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:22

Ctrl Time

2:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Fabricio Camoes	5 / 27	18 / 42	0 / 4
1	Melvin Guillard	8 / 28	18 / 41	1 / 1
2	Fabricio Camoes	7 / 22	9 / 25	1 / 4
2	Melvin Guillard	16 / 32	26 / 43	0 / 0
3	Fabricio Camoes	6 / 25	6 / 25	0 / 3
3	Melvin Guillard	13 / 41	13 / 41	0 / 0

Melvin Guillard

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights11

Fabricio Camoes

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights5