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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Melvin Guillard won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1490

Elo1385

Melvin GuillardvsEvan DunhamUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 2 · Saturday, January 22, 2011Killeen, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Melvin Guillard won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:58

Style matchupMelvin Guillard: Well-roundedvsEvan Dunham: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Evan Dunham wins(53.2%)

Actual result: Melvin Guillard wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Evan Dunham at -225 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Evan Dunham has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Evan Dunham (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Melvin Guillard

Red Corner

Evan Dunham

Blue Corner

+205

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-225

(69%)

1490

Elo

1385

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Melvin Guillard

oldest →

vs Fabricio Camoes · Jul 12

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 12

vs Jamie Varner · Dec 12

KOvs Mac Danzig · Jul 13

vs Michael Johnson · Mar 14

latest

Evan DunhamL3 streak

oldest →

vs Joe Lauzon · Dec 15

vs Rick Glenn · Sep 16

KOvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Apr 18

KOvs Francisco Trinaldo · Sep 18

SUBvs Herbert Burns · Jun 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Melvin GuillardMetricEvan Dunham

2.96

Strikes / min

5.33

1.85

Strikes absorbed / min

3.54

66%

Strike defense

61%

1.30

TDs / 15 min

1.82

61%

Takedown defense

79%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.11evenly matched on net striking+1.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Melvin GuillardEvan Dunham

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Melvin Guillard(10 fights)Evan Dunham(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +105.4|Blue -105.4

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Melvin GuillardTargetEvan Dunham

By target zone

50% acc · 88%

Head

0% acc

67% acc · 12%

Body

50% acc · 100%

Leg

By position

47% acc · 47%

Distance

20% acc · 100%

67% acc · 35%

Clinch

43% acc · 18%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Melvin Guillard rounds

even

Evan Dunham rounds

Round 1Melvin Guillard edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:05

Knockdowns2

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:58Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 33

Sig Strikes

2 / 10

51%

Sig Str %

20%

28 / 44

Total Strikes

2 / 10

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 6

—

TD %

16%

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

0:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Evan Dunham	2 / 10	2 / 10	1 / 6	0
1	Melvin Guillard	17 / 33	28 / 44	0 / 0	0

Melvin Guillard

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights11

Evan Dunham

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17