Featherweight

3 Rounds

Murtazali Magomedov won · Submission R1

Elo1474

Elo1525

Melsik BaghdasaryanvsMurtazali MagomedovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · Saturday, June 20, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Murtazali Magomedov won

Submission · Round 1 · 1:17

Style matchupMelsik Baghdasaryan: StrikervsMurtazali Magomedov: Elusive striker

Two strikers, different gameplans. Volume vs precision — judges typically favor activity.

Model Prediction: Melsik Baghdasaryan wins(65.3%)

Actual result: Murtazali Magomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Murtazali Magomedov threatens submissions; Melsik Baghdasaryan has lost 67% of fights by sub.
Murtazali Magomedov has 28pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Melsik Baghdasaryan has 72pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Melsik Baghdasaryan

Red Corner

Murtazali Magomedov

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1474

Elo

1525

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Melsik Baghdasaryan

oldest →

KOvs Collin Anglin · Jul 21

vs Bruno Souza · Nov 21

SUBvs Josh Culibao · Feb 23

vs Tucker Lutz · Jul 23

KOvs Jean Silva · Feb 25

latest

Murtazali MagomedovNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Melsik BaghdasaryanMetricMurtazali Magomedov

5.04

Strikes / min

5.57

3.14

Strikes absorbed / min

1.86

56%

Strike defense

84%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

72%

Takedown defense

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.90Δ 1.81 — meaningful gap+3.71

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Melsik Baghdasaryan(6 fights)Murtazali Magomedov(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -51.4|Blue +51.4

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Melsik BaghdasaryanTargetMurtazali Magomedov

By target zone

0% acc

Head

60% acc · 60%

100% acc · 100%

Body

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 40%

By position

23% acc · 100%

Distance

100% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Melsik Baghdasaryan rounds

even

Murtazali Magomedov rounds

Round 1Murtazali Magomedov edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:27Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 13

Sig Strikes

5 / 7

23%

Sig Str %

71%

3 / 13

Total Strikes

7 / 9

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Murtazali Magomedov	5 / 7	7 / 9	1 / 2	1
1	Melsik Baghdasaryan	3 / 13	3 / 13	0 / 0	0

Melsik Baghdasaryan

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6

Murtazali Magomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights1