Featherweight

3 Rounds

Melsik Baghdasaryan won · U-DEC R3

Elo1474

Elo1421

Melsik BaghdasaryanvsBruno SouzaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · Saturday, November 6, 2021New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Melsik Baghdasaryan won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMelsik Baghdasaryan: StrikervsBruno Souza: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Melsik Baghdasaryan wins(73.5%)

Actual result: Melsik Baghdasaryan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Melsik Baghdasaryan at -400 American odds

+$25 profit

$125 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Melsik Baghdasaryan has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Melsik Baghdasaryan (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Melsik Baghdasaryan

Red Corner

Bruno Souza

Blue Corner

-400

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+300

(25%)

1474

Elo

1421

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Melsik BaghdasaryanL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Collin Anglin · Jul 21

SUBvs Josh Culibao · Feb 23

vs Tucker Lutz · Jul 23

KOvs Jean Silva · Feb 25

SUBvs Murtazali Magomedov · Jun 26

latest

Bruno Souza

oldest →

vs Luis Saldana · Mar 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Melsik BaghdasaryanMetricBruno Souza

5.04

Strikes / min

3.73

3.14

Strikes absorbed / min

5.30

56%

Strike defense

45%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.50

72%

Takedown defense

60%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.90Δ 3.47 — meaningful gap-1.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Melsik BaghdasaryanBruno Souza

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Melsik Baghdasaryan(6 fights)Bruno Souza(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +53.0|Blue -53.0

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Melsik BaghdasaryanTargetBruno Souza

By target zone

41% acc · 35%

Head

39% acc · 59%

78% acc · 33%

Body

54% acc · 28%

83% acc · 32%

Leg

67% acc · 13%

By position

58% acc · 91%

Distance

43% acc · 89%

100% acc · 9%

Clinch

71% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Melsik Baghdasaryan rounds

even

Bruno Souza rounds

Round 1Melsik Baghdasaryan edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:05

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:40Control

Round 2Melsik Baghdasaryan edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:05

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Melsik Baghdasaryan edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

75 / 124

Sig Strikes

46 / 103

60.3%

Sig Str %

44.3%

77 / 126

Total Strikes

47 / 104

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 4

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:10

Ctrl Time

0:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Bruno Souza	11 / 24	12 / 25	0 / 1
1	Melsik Baghdasaryan	21 / 36	23 / 38	0 / 0
2	Bruno Souza	16 / 37	16 / 37	0 / 1
2	Melsik Baghdasaryan	31 / 43	31 / 43	0 / 0
3	Bruno Souza	19 / 42	19 / 42	0 / 2
3	Melsik Baghdasaryan	23 / 45	23 / 45	0 / 0

Melsik Baghdasaryan

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6

Bruno Souza

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights2