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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Melquizael Costa won · SUB R3

Elo1564

Elo1497

Melquizael CostavsShayilan NuerdanbiekeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira · Saturday, June 15, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Melquizael Costa won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:50

Style matchupMelquizael Costa: WrestlervsShayilan Nuerdanbieke: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Melquizael Costa wins(74.5%)

Actual result: Melquizael Costa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Melquizael Costa at -238 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Melquizael Costa has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Melquizael Costa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Melquizael Costa

Red Corner

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Blue Corner

-238

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1564

Elo

1497

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Melquizael Costa

oldest →

vs Christian Rodriguez · Mar 25

vs Julian Erosa · May 25

KOvs Morgan Charriere · Dec 25

KOvs Dan Ige · Feb 26

DECvs Arnold Allen · May 26

latest

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

oldest →

vs Josh Culibao · May 21

vs Sean Soriano · Nov 21

vs TJ Brown · Jun 22

KOvs Darrick Minner · Nov 22

KOvs Steve Garcia · Apr 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Melquizael CostaMetricShayilan Nuerdanbieke

4.38

Strikes / min

1.95

2.97

Strikes absorbed / min

2.64

54%

Strike defense

50%

2.00

TDs / 15 min

3.30

58%

Takedown defense

28%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.41Δ 2.10 — meaningful gap-0.69

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Melquizael CostaShayilan Nuerdanbieke

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Melquizael Costa(10 fights)Shayilan Nuerdanbieke(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +66.2|Blue -66.2

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -245.0|Blue +245.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Melquizael CostaTargetShayilan Nuerdanbieke

By target zone

40% acc · 50%

Head

67% acc · 67%

50% acc · 31%

Body

100% acc · 17%

60% acc · 19%

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

36% acc · 50%

Distance

67% acc · 67%

71% acc · 31%

Clinch

100% acc · 33%

50% acc · 19%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Melquizael Costa rounds

even

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke rounds

Round 1Shayilan Nuerdanbieke edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:28

1Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:52Control

Round 2Melquizael Costa edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns2

Control1:41

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:34Control

Round 3Melquizael Costa edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:51

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 35

Sig Strikes

6 / 8

48%

Sig Str %

75%

76 / 106

Total Strikes

20 / 28

2 / 2

TDs

4 / 10

100%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

3:00

Ctrl Time

6:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Shayilan Nuerdanbieke	1 / 2	9 / 12	3 / 4	1
1	Melquizael Costa	4 / 7	31 / 39	0 / 0	1
2	Shayilan Nuerdanbieke	3 / 4	7 / 11	1 / 4	0
2	Melquizael Costa	6 / 16	31 / 46	2 / 2	0
3	Shayilan Nuerdanbieke	2 / 2	4 / 5	0 / 2	0
3	Melquizael Costa	6 / 12	14 / 21	0 / 0	1

Melquizael Costa

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights9

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6