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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Melquizael Costa won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1564
Elo1502

Melquizael CostavsMorgan CharriereUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · Saturday, December 13, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Melquizael Costa won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:14

Style matchupMelquizael Costa: WrestlervsMorgan Charriere: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Melquizael Costa wins(72.6%)

Actual result: Melquizael Costa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Melquizael Costa at -164 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Morgan Charriere has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Melquizael Costa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Melquizael Costa
Red Corner
VS
Morgan Charriere
Blue Corner
-164
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+138
(42%)
1564
Elo
1502
29
Age
30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'8"
180.34 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Melquizael Costa
oldest →
W
SUBvs Andre Fili · Feb 25
W
vs Christian Rodriguez · Mar 25
W
vs Julian Erosa · May 25
W
KOvs Dan Ige · Feb 26
L
DECvs Arnold Allen · May 26
latest
Morgan Charriere
oldest →
W
KOvs Manolo Zecchini · Sep 23
L
vs Chepe Mariscal · Apr 24
W
KOvs Gabriel Miranda · Sep 24
L
vs Nathaniel Wood · Mar 25
W
KOvs Nate Landwehr · Jul 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Melquizael CostaMetricMorgan Charriere
4.38
Strikes / min
4.02
2.97
Strikes absorbed / min
4.51
54%
Strike defense
53%
2.00
TDs / 15 min
2.06
58%
Takedown defense
83%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.41Δ 1.90 — meaningful gap-0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1551 vs 1520Strikes4.4 vs 4.0Takedowns2.0 vs 2.1Sub Atts1.10 vs 0.30Form0.9 vs 0.2
Melquizael CostaMorgan Charriere

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801508153515631590← oldermost recent →
Melquizael Costa(10 fights)Morgan Charriere(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +61.6|Blue -61.6
Recent Form
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +56.0|Blue -56.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Melquizael CostaTargetMorgan Charriere

By target zone

1
33% acc · 25%
Head
0
0% acc
1
100% acc · 25%
Body
0
2
40% acc · 50%
Leg
2
100% acc · 100%

By position

4
44% acc · 100%
Distance
2
50% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Melquizael Costa rounds
0
even
0
Morgan Charriere rounds
Round 1Melquizael Costa edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns1
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
4 / 9
Sig Strikes
2 / 4
44%
Sig Str %
50%
4 / 9
Total Strikes
2 / 4
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:02
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Morgan Charriere2 / 42 / 40 / 00
1Melquizael Costa4 / 94 / 90 / 00

Melquizael Costa

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights9

Morgan Charriere

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights6