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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Elise Reed won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1494

Melissa MartinezvsElise ReedUFC Prediction Result

UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · Saturday, September 10, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Elise Reed won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMelissa Martinez: StrikervsElise Reed: Striker

Two strikers — expect distance work and a kickboxing-style battle.

Model Prediction: Melissa Martinez wins(63.0%)

Actual result: Elise Reed wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Melissa Martinez at -175 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Melissa Martinez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Melissa Martinez

Red Corner

Elise Reed

Blue Corner

-175

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1491

Elo

1494

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'2"

Height

5'3"

167.64 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Melissa Martinez

oldest →

vs Alice Ardelean · Oct 24

KOvs Fatima Kline · Jul 25

latest

Elise Reed

oldest →

SUBvs Loma Lookboonmee · Feb 23

vs Jinh Yu Frey · Jun 23

SUBvs Loopy Godinez · Sep 23

vs Jessica Penne · Oct 24

KOvs Denise Gomes · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Melissa MartinezMetricElise Reed

3.78

Strikes / min

3.41

5.21

Strikes absorbed / min

3.26

53%

Strike defense

51%

0.35

TDs / 15 min

0.46

50%

Takedown defense

53%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.43Δ 1.58 — meaningful gap+0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Melissa MartinezElise Reed

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Melissa Martinez(3 fights)Elise Reed(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.3|Blue +2.3

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +49.7|Blue -49.7

Grappler Score

Red +49.8|Blue -49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Melissa MartinezTargetElise Reed

By target zone

26% acc · 22%

Head

34% acc · 39%

81% acc · 38%

Body

89% acc · 45%

95% acc · 40%

Leg

86% acc · 16%

By position

55% acc · 82%

Distance

39% acc · 53%

75% acc · 13%

Clinch

92% acc · 32%

67% acc · 4%

Ground

100% acc · 16%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Melissa Martinez rounds

even

Elise Reed rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control1:06

Knockdowns0

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Melissa Martinez edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:42

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:45Control

Round 3Elise Reed edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:54

16Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:18Control

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 78

Sig Strikes

38 / 70

56.7%

Sig Str %

54%

63 / 96

Total Strikes

65 / 99

1 / 2

TDs

3 / 3

50%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:42

Ctrl Time

3:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Elise Reed	9 / 23	25 / 41	0 / 0
1	Melissa Martinez	16 / 28	21 / 33	0 / 1
2	Elise Reed	13 / 24	15 / 26	0 / 0
2	Melissa Martinez	19 / 31	23 / 35	0 / 0
3	Elise Reed	16 / 23	25 / 32	3 / 3
3	Melissa Martinez	10 / 19	19 / 28	1 / 1

Melissa Martinez

StanceSouthpaw

Height62.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights3

Elise Reed

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights9