Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Melissa Martinez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1540

Melissa MartinezvsAlice ArdeleanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · Saturday, October 19, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Melissa Martinez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMelissa Martinez: StrikervsAlice Ardelean: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Alice Ardelean wins(60.6%)

Actual result: Melissa Martinez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alice Ardelean at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alice Ardelean enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Alice Ardelean has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Melissa Martinez (53.5%).
Melissa Martinez has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Melissa Martinez

Red Corner

Alice Ardelean

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1491

Elo

1540

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'2"

Height

5'3"

167.64 cm

Reach

157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Melissa MartinezL2 streak

oldest →

vs Elise Reed · Sep 22

KOvs Fatima Kline · Jul 25

latest

Alice ArdeleanW3 streak

oldest →

vs Shauna Bannon · Jul 24

vs Rayanne dos Santos · May 25

vs Montserrat Conejo Ruiz · Nov 25

SUBvs Polyana Viana · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Melissa MartinezMetricAlice Ardelean

3.78

Strikes / min

7.35

5.21

Strikes absorbed / min

5.20

53%

Strike defense

62%

0.35

TDs / 15 min

1.00

50%

Takedown defense

85%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.43Δ 3.58 — meaningful gap+2.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Melissa MartinezAlice Ardelean

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Melissa Martinez(3 fights)Alice Ardelean(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -48.9|Blue +48.9

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +686.0|Blue -686.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Melissa MartinezTargetAlice Ardelean

By target zone

37% acc · 46%

Head

33% acc · 64%

62% acc · 25%

Body

71% acc · 16%

81% acc · 29%

Leg

75% acc · 20%

By position

50% acc · 100%

Distance

41% acc · 99%

Clinch

50% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Melissa Martinez rounds

even

Alice Ardelean rounds

Round 1Alice Ardelean edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Alice Ardelean edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

45Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3Melissa Martinez edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:35Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

72 / 145

Sig Strikes

92 / 224

48.7%

Sig Str %

39.7%

78 / 151

Total Strikes

103 / 240

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alice Ardelean	27 / 71	29 / 73	0 / 0
1	Melissa Martinez	18 / 42	18 / 42	0 / 0
2	Alice Ardelean	45 / 90	48 / 94	0 / 1
2	Melissa Martinez	29 / 56	29 / 56	0 / 0
3	Alice Ardelean	20 / 63	26 / 73	0 / 0
3	Melissa Martinez	25 / 47	31 / 53	0 / 0

Melissa Martinez

StanceSouthpaw

Height62.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights3

Alice Ardelean

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights4