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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Melissa Croden won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1524

Elo1477

Melissa CrodenvsTainara LisboaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · Saturday, October 18, 2025Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Melissa Croden won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:32

Model Prediction: Melissa Croden wins(58.8%)

Actual result: Melissa Croden wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Melissa Croden at -132 American odds

+$76 profit

$176 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Melissa Croden is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Tainara Lisboa has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Melissa Croden has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Melissa Croden

Red Corner

Tainara Lisboa

Blue Corner

-132

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+112

(47%)

1524

Elo

1477

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

172.72 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Melissa Croden

oldest →

vs Luana Santos · Dec 25

DECvs Daria Zhelezniakova · Apr 26

latest

Tainara Lisboa

oldest →

SUBvs Jessica-Rose Clark · May 23

vs Ravena Oliveira · Oct 23

SUBvs Luana Santos · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Melissa CrodenMetricTainara Lisboa

4.27

Strikes / min

2.01

2.13

Strikes absorbed / min

2.88

59%

Strike defense

45%

2.02

TDs / 15 min

1.67

66%

Takedown defense

53%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.14Δ 3.01 — meaningful gap-0.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Melissa CrodenTainara Lisboa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Melissa Croden(3 fights)Tainara Lisboa(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +47.0|Blue -47.0

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +49.7|Blue -49.7

Grappler Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Melissa CrodenTargetTainara Lisboa

By target zone

52% acc · 75%

Head

33% acc · 55%

75% acc · 12%

Body

86% acc · 43%

72% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

53% acc · 58%

Distance

33% acc · 55%

65% acc · 13%

Clinch

86% acc · 45%

62% acc · 29%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Melissa Croden rounds

even

Tainara Lisboa rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:13

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:04Control

Round 2Melissa Croden edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns1

Control1:45

Knockdowns1

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:52Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Melissa Croden edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns1

Control3:07

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:23Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

99 / 175

Sig Strikes

42 / 92

55.7%

Sig Str %

44.7%

148 / 230

Total Strikes

63 / 115

2 / 3

TDs

2 / 8

75%

TD %

23.3%

Sub Att

Rev

5:05

Ctrl Time

2:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tainara Lisboa	25 / 56	34 / 66	0 / 1
1	Melissa Croden	27 / 57	35 / 66	0 / 0
2	Tainara Lisboa	13 / 26	21 / 34	1 / 2
2	Melissa Croden	33 / 57	58 / 83	1 / 1
3	Tainara Lisboa	4 / 10	8 / 15	1 / 5
3	Melissa Croden	39 / 61	55 / 81	1 / 2

Melissa Croden

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights2

Tainara Lisboa

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights4