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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Luana Santos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1524

Elo1550

Melissa CrodenvsLuana SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · Saturday, December 13, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Luana Santos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMelissa Croden: WrestlervsLuana Santos: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Luana Santos wins(66.5%)

Actual result: Luana Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luana Santos at -136 American odds

+$74 profit

$174 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Luana Santos has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Melissa Croden

Red Corner

Luana Santos

Blue Corner

+116

(46%)

Vegas Odds

-136

(58%)

1524

Elo

1550

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Melissa CrodenW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tainara Lisboa · Oct 25

DECvs Daria Zhelezniakova · Apr 26

latest

Luana SantosW2 streak

oldest →

vs Stephanie Egger · Dec 23

SUBvs Mariya Agapova · Jul 24

vs Casey O'Neill · Aug 24

SUBvs Tainara Lisboa · May 25

DECvs Karol Rosa · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Melissa CrodenMetricLuana Santos

4.27

Strikes / min

2.99

2.13

Strikes absorbed / min

2.93

59%

Strike defense

63%

2.02

TDs / 15 min

2.17

66%

Takedown defense

85%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.14Δ 2.08 — meaningful gap+0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Melissa CrodenLuana Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Melissa Croden(3 fights)Luana Santos(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -25.9|Blue +25.9

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -154.0|Blue +154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Melissa CrodenTargetLuana Santos

By target zone

17% acc · 41%

Head

38% acc · 50%

88% acc · 32%

Body

80% acc · 33%

46% acc · 27%

Leg

67% acc · 17%

By position

26% acc · 82%

Distance

50% acc · 83%

80% acc · 18%

Clinch

67% acc · 17%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Melissa Croden rounds

even

Luana Santos rounds

Round 1Luana Santos edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:44

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:51Control

Round 2Luana Santos edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:41Control

Round 3Luana Santos edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

0Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:49Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 74

Sig Strikes

12 / 24

30.3%

Sig Str %

33.7%

56 / 109

Total Strikes

93 / 110

0 / 1

TDs

3 / 7

TD %

44.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:44

Ctrl Time

9:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Luana Santos	10 / 13	33 / 37	1 / 3	0
1	Melissa Croden	7 / 27	21 / 41	0 / 1	0
2	Luana Santos	2 / 8	14 / 23	1 / 2	1
2	Melissa Croden	10 / 21	30 / 42	0 / 0	0
3	Luana Santos	0 / 3	46 / 50	1 / 2	0
3	Melissa Croden	5 / 26	5 / 26	0 / 0	0

Melissa Croden

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights2

Luana Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights7