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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Melissa Croden won · Decision R3

Elo1524

Elo1490

Melissa CrodenvsDaria ZhelezniakovaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · Saturday, April 18, 2026Winnipeg, Canada

Official fight result

Melissa Croden won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMelissa Croden: WrestlervsDaria Zhelezniakova: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Melissa Croden wins(50.8%)

Actual result: Melissa Croden wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Melissa Croden has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Melissa Croden

Red Corner

Daria Zhelezniakova

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1524

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

172.72 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Melissa Croden

oldest →

KOvs Tainara Lisboa · Oct 25

vs Luana Santos · Dec 25

latest

Daria Zhelezniakova

oldest →

vs Montserrat Rendon · Mar 24

SUBvs Ailin Perez · Sep 24

vs Melissa Mullins · Jun 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Melissa CrodenMetricDaria Zhelezniakova

4.27

Strikes / min

4.13

2.13

Strikes absorbed / min

3.38

59%

Strike defense

64%

2.02

TDs / 15 min

0.31

66%

Takedown defense

50%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.14Δ 1.39 — meaningful gap+0.75

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Melissa Croden(3 fights)Daria Zhelezniakova(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +34.2|Blue -34.2

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -175.0|Blue +175.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Melissa Croden

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights2

Daria Zhelezniakova

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights3